Poll Shows "Blue Wave" To Miss Arizona, but Democrats May Be Closer to Winning Than We Think

U.S. Senate candidates, U.S. Rep. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., left, and U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., prepare their remarks in a television studio prior to a televised debate, Monday, Oct. 15, 2018, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Matt York)

One poll in Arizona shows a healthy dose of support for Republicans, but is it accurate?

According to a new ABC15 poll released on Wednesday, Republican Martha McSally has increased her lead on Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. According to OH Predictive Insights, who conducted the poll, McSally is now ahead by seven:


The exclusive ABC15 Arizona and OH Predictive Insights poll shows McSally with a seven-point lead with 52% of the vote compared to Sinema’s 45%.

Only 2% are undecided with 1% saying they’ll vote for Green Party candidate Angela Green.

The chief pollster for OH Predictive Insights says the shift in numbers is being linked to the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh and the caravan of migrants headed to the United States.

The migrant caravan has certainly been an issue for Democrats, and as it gets closer to the U.S. border, voters find themselves turned off by a party that seems to be more welcoming and hospitable to illegal immigration in the face of increasing crime and financial catastrophes caused by illegal immigration.

That the successful appointment of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court was giving Republicans a boost nationwide we already knew.

Like any of the midterm races happening now, however, it’s not safe to feel complacent, as the ABC15 poll might not even be as accurate as Republicans would like.

As Ed Morrissey points out over at Hot Air, ABC15 is the only poll that shows McSally with such a lead, and it raises some questions:

If you’re rooting for McSally, you’d better pray that OHPI has got the turnout model correct. Over the last two months, three of the five polls (out of 16 listed at RCP) giving McSally any lead at all came from OHPI. They’re also the only pollster to show her up over the margin of error in any poll.

So far, neither OHPI nor ABC15 has published its methodology for this specific survey. RCP lists it as using 600 likely voters with a margin of error of ±4.0%, which is certainly respectable for a statewide poll. Curiously, though, they also list the survey as having taken place October 22-23, which is well over a week ago. Why wait so long to publish those results, and are they even reflective of where the race stands now?


That Republicans may walk away with a victory here is, for all intents and purposes, likely. However, Democrats in the rearview mirror may be closer than they appear, and if Arizonans want to keep their state a pleasant shade of crimson, then they’d be wise to show up at the polls.

According to early voting stats, Republicans are, and by a whopping ten points no less. However, the resident fat lady in Arizona hasn’t sung yet.

Go vote.


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