Many a cinema watcher will be keyed in on this weekend’s box office, mostly because there will be fewer people watching screens, at least as far as one title is concerned. The latest DC Films comic book adaptation is looking at less-than-heroic returns, and how this will reflect on other companies is the surprise here.
Currently in theaters, Hollywood is experiencing a favorable year, and this summer is proving to be one delivering more decent fortunes. Coming into this month, the overall box office has been outperforming year-to-date by nearly 10 percent, and that was before the arrival of “Toy Story 5,” which set franchise records last weekend. Buoyed by a number of surprise hits, things have been solid for the exhibitors.
Not everything is a surefire hit, however. “The Mandalorian and Grogu” became a surprise bomb for Disney. “Masters of the Universe” has already been forgotten as an also-ran after less than a month in release. And this coming weekend, another surefire hit is poised to crater: “Supergirl.” Its expected failure can have effects on dozens of companies
As Brandon Morse has been following here for the past few weeks, the lead actress in this DC-Warners feature, Milly Alcock, has been serving up audience-repelling comments on the regular, and the film’s fortunes are foundering as a result. This is not only sure to tank the profitability of the movie itself, but the future of the DC superhero universe, as helmed by James Gunn, is threatened.
Initial tracking for this title had it pegged to perform better its opening weekend than the “Mandalorian” entry, at around $80 million. In early June, those numbers were revised down to a more modest $55 million debut weekend. Contrasted with “Superman’s" bow last year at $125 million, this is a woeful prospect, and the projections have only turned more dismal.
As of now, this movie is seeing comparisons to an infamous bomb in the DC cinematic universe, “The Flash.” That fiasco contributed to the need to retool the failings of the DC cinematic universe, something Mr. Gunn was brought in to repair. Shawn Robbins, at Box Office Theory, is a pretty sharp analyst on box office performances, and he has this new film doing far worse coming into this weekend’s launch, and even gives it a chance of dipping lower still.
Pre-sale trends across our national samples currently point toward a front-loaded weekend with Thursday previews likely to land ahead of The Marvels ($6.6 million). This puts a potential weekend debut bordering around $40 million on the table, although our pinpoint is remaining “bullish” within the set spectrum of forecasts
The longterm prospects look even worse. This weekend, “Supergirl” is not expected to debut in the top position, as the juggernaut “Toy Story 5” is looking to come close to a $100 million second-week performance. And the weeks ahead see more massive tentpole releases that will keep this effort from having any chance at long-term recovery, with “Minions and Monsters,” the live-action “Moana,” and Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” in successive weeks.
What makes little sense is that “Supergirl” has drawn in participation from dozens of companies interested in cross-promotions. More than 80 companies internationally have joined the film for promotional opportunities. Domestic brands such as American Airlines, Samsung, and Timex are in on the boosting.
The fast-food tie-in is with KFC, with a branded chicken tenders meal sporting three character-driven dipping sauces. Given that super dog Krypto is a featured character here (the supernal canine has been featured in more trailers as interest had been lagging), Milk-Bone dog treats have a branded product for the film.
The mystery is why there would be this much interest and investment in a film that is essentially a spin-off. Even if it proved to be somewhat successful, “Supergirl” was always assured to earn less than “Superman” – and that film struggled to hit the break-even mark moneywise. How does it make sense that this character would generate more corporate participation than the originating movie last year? Why is there so much international interest when that film drew only 40 percent of its global take from overseas markets?
These are the kinds of money decisions that always have me interested in covering the business of entertainment. Hollywood economics frequently defy common business practices. Hell, they frequently defy common sense.
Years back, Netflix had a new show on superheroes, “Jupiter’s Legacy,” starring Josh Duhamel. It was a $200 million series and debuted at the top of the platform’s streaming charts. But before the series run concluded, Netflix announced it had been canceled. Surely the company had internal metrics showing it was not a bona fide hit, but it effectively killed off interest and any chance at future audience growth by telling subscribers they should not invest in watching the whole season, as it was not returning.
Warners will be looking at some hard decisions if the projections for this latest superhero release hold up, and more so if they continue to trend down. After a lukewarm "Superman" debut that showed The Man of Steel constantly being beaten up and bettered, this second James Gunn effort has Supergirl bar-hopping the universe and then motivated to avenge her dog being poisoned. Yes, that is the crux of this plot.
This is sounding like ordering an XL popcorn and sitting down to realize you were served a tub filled with Milk Bones.
#Supergirl is a “super-horrendous” comic book movie “with the worst script I can remember,” reads Variety’s review from @OwenGleiberman.
— Variety (@Variety) June 24, 2026
James Gunn said he wasn’t going into production on any movie until the script was rock-solid. For that was the overriding problem with the… pic.twitter.com/K5ekfDMpKw
Editor’s Note: Hollywood, academia, and liberal elites are out of touch with the average American.
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