The theatrical business in Hollywood has been notably different in just the past five years. Three significant interconnected alterations to the industry have led to a seismic shift in the business model of studios and movie theaters – the rise of streaming services, the pandemic, and dual strikes held by creative guilds last year. As a result, the motion picture landscape has been significantly altered as premiere platforms, production budgets, release schedules, and a number of other procedures are very different these days.

The 2024 release schedule has been a conglomeration of odd realities at the box office. The musical remake of “Mean Girls” was the top film for almost all of January. Illumination Studio’s animated “Migration” never ranked higher than #3 and yet managed to earn over $100 million. Surely few people guessed the Bob Marley biopic “One Love” would be #1, for weeks and is also about to edge past that $100M plateau, yet the surefire “Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire” has been a disappointment.

A sign of this still-evolving reality is evident this weekend. Today sees Ryan Gosling in the debut of “The Fall Guy,” a loose adaptation of the long-running television action series from the 1980s. The film has mostly positive reviews, while advanced screenings have delivered hot word of mouth. To go with this, Gosling is coming off of last year’s mega-hit “Barbie” and was expected to be a real draw in a fun, comedic action romp. And yet…

Projections for the film saw estimates between $30-40 million, and the Thursday previews delivered a return that sees it landing squarely in that window. This is a mediocre performance — not horrendous, not a smash hit — but it is bothersome all the same, as this movie was regarded as the kickoff to the summer blockbuster. Or was it?

On the prediction side of things for “The Fall Guy” the industry experts are using the 2022 action-comedy “Lost City,” starring Channing Tatum and Sandra Bullock, as a baseline. At that time, the industry was still getting a grip on getting back to wide releases, and the ticket-buying market was still unsettled. Now, two years out and with things more established theatrically, this is not the optimum comparable you want for the film expected to launch what used to be the hottest frame on the movie calendar.

In looking at this return, at Deadline they are indicating that there is an issue lingering in the industry. Anthony D’Alessandro declared that when looking at this from the perspective of launching the blockbuster season, “That’s not your typical start.” This might be as good an explanation as expected because after all of the major impacts experienced these past few years, “typical” is no longer in play when it comes to motion picture releases. 

D’Alessandro alludes to the strikes as having buggered the release schedules, and this is accurate to an extent. Many major films saw post-production affected, especially as the actors were prevented from doing anything regarding work. Re-recording dialogue, pickup scenes, and full-scale reshoots were completely delayed as a result. But “The Fall Guy” is being released, so all of that merely concerned the “when” as far as it getting released; the looming question with this one is the “why,” considering this is a film with nothing but favorables but underperforming at the start of the busiest movie-going portion of the calendar.

Desperation creeps into the Deadline assessment when you learn why the film is debuting this weekend. It had previously been slated for a release two months earlier, but shifts in the plans of another tentpole release meant this week became available. But it is here that we get a sense that all is not right in Hollywood.

The most previous release date for “The Fall Guy” was March 1, but Universal pushed it to this weekend after Disney/Marvel Studios’ vacated “Deadpool & Wolverine” to end of July — which some now view as the true start of summer. 

This…is a problem. By now the studios were normally kicking into high gear with major titles coming out each week. The pre-pandemic years saw Hollywood pushing the summer window out to begin earlier, with the “Fast & the Furious” franchise sometimes stretching back to even earlier release dates. (The eighth film debuted on April 12 that year.) Now, in looking over the release slate, it is said that the promised monster hit “Deadpool & Wolverine” – on July 26 – is the start of summer?! 

Yes, the strikes have impacted things to a degree, but there are still some major titles on the horizon one would expect to see this time of year. “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes,” Paramount’s animated “If,” the “Mad Max” extension “Furiosa,” and “The Garfield Movie” are slated for May. June brings “Bad Boys: Ride Or Die” and Disney’s “Inside Out 2.” To suggest that the real blockbuster season has yet to begin until almost three months from now is rather desperate. And ridiculous.

Just imagine looking ahead, we can be sitting around a barbeque on the Fourth of July, and someone comes up to say, “I love this holiday - it means that summer is right around the corner!”