It has only been days in practice, but events are unfolding in a way few predicted and Putin may not be an automatic autocrat.

The economic pressure on Putin’s Russia has only just begun, but there is a surprising reality attached: The sanctions being delivered are delivering results. The Russian economy is in no position to withstand a serious blow but, like the rockets we have seen delivered into Ukrainian housing complexes, the fiscal ordinances sent into Russia have also brought significant damage.

Putin has been attempting to place a lockdown on the news outlets in his country regarding the coverage of the Ukraine invasion. This is itself a curious move, as it is seen as a flex move on the part of Putin to build up his stature as a leader but at the same time, he is tamping down discussion of it. The economic reprisals will start to have a severe effect on the populace, and once the explanation for the economic suffering is realized to be a result of this uncalled-for invasion the public outcry could begin.

The amount of time this attack takes will be key. If it takes too long the effects on Russia could become untenable. Putin may very well find himself in possession of annexed fiefdoms, while the motherland becomes a wilting entity. 

The Russian invasion has only begun in earnest this week, but already we have seen a number of surprises, the primary one being that Vladamir Putin’s forces are not delivering a perfect score, but are rolling over Ukraine with the difficulty of a candlepins bowler. The citizens are showing impressive bravery and mettle, and the Russian forces are seen running into challenges unforeseen as they are encountering problems with machinery and in their undertrained troops.

Putin offered up what he felt was a power symbol on Monday, showing him seated at a table longer than a barroom shuffleboard game, with his cabinet advisors seated about 30 feet from him. Meant to display his dominance, it instead delivered a mixed message. He looks separated from the sane leaders, or his remote nature underscored the theories he is unraveling as a leader. There was also the unintentional phallic nature which only delivers an air of unintended impotence. The appearance of the nefarious trapdoor buttons under the edging is a nice megalomaniacal touch, as well.

Putin meets with his top advisors today. pic.twitter.com/mIirRtnoXY

— Jonathan Karl (@jonkarl) February 28, 2022

This photo of a leader in need of propaganda bolstering reflects the problems the Russian invaders are encountering. This surprising turn means that the western nations, who were notably absent as a NATO force, are now channeling significant weaponry into Ukraine to bolster this resistance. Another factor that is mounting that could play a bigger role is happening behind Putin’s focus, and that is the mounting economic sanctions being applied to Russia. 

While normally these rote efforts are viewed as either symbolic in nature or as delivering a message of rebuke, in the case of targeting Russia, the various fungible maneuvers are having a drastic impact on an already seeping Russian economy. In a surprisingly short period of time, numerous steps taken have sent shockwaves into a country already struggling to thrive.

Even though President Biden gave Putin back his European pipeline, it is not fully in use, and as oil sales are the primary revenue stream of the country, the monetary system has been propped up with assets stored abroad. European banks put a freeze on Russian accounts, and absent that support system, the Russian Ruble is collapsing. By Saturday, their monetary base was 84 Rubles to the Dollar, and the next day plunged to 117/$1. The Ruble is now valued at less than a penny.

The Moscow Exchange was crashing to such a degree that the decision was made to not only halt trading but close the exchange entirely. It is still actively seen on foreign stock trades and the visual is jarring.

The Moscow Stock Exchange is shut for now, but Sberbank has a London listing and has just collapsed 74% on opening pic.twitter.com/HMWhB0jYz3

— Robin Wigglesworth (@RobinWigg) February 28, 2022

The already sketchy acquisition of goods in a supply-chain snafu will become worse, as imports will dry up and those already in port will be priced beyond normal levels. Day-to-day experiences are also impacted already. Air travel to Europe has been closed off entirely. The major tech companies — Google Pay, Apple Pay, and Samsung Pay —  have closed their personal banking operations, which could affect 30 percent of Russian citizens. The central bank VTB is among those sanctioned currently, and they handle commuter card transactions, which will impact train and bus usage for many. 

Here in the states, there have been other banking locks placed on Russian assets. This has been done to hit Putin in a more direct fashion – freezing out his billionaire oligarch allies. If enough of these top-flight Russian businessmen have their business arrangements targeted it could become another financial fulcrum.

The European Union said Monday night that it added 26 prominent Russians officials and businessmen to its sanctions list, freezing their assets and imposing travel bans. The U.K. is expected to sanction more oligarchs in the coming days. Even Monaco, famed for its generous tax rules and status as a playground for the well-heeled, said it was clamping down on sanctioned Russians.

And in what has to be seen as the biggest surprise, China is also imposing big problems on Russia. Banks in Singapore, as well as China, have stopped providing lines of credit for commodities deals for Russia, and this is cutting off that primary flow of cash into the country – oil deals.

Bank of China’s Singapore operation has stopped financing deals involving Russian oil and Russian companies, amid concerns of western sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, said a source on Monday (Feb 28) with knowledge of the matter.

All of this is encouraging, but not assured of delivering a winning impact…yet. The entire question will rest on time. Can the Ukrainians deliver enough of a resistance to draw out the invasion and have these economic Molotovs delivering a crippling effect, and can those effects become intolerable enough so the Russian businesses and citizens revolt against Putin in a natural fashion?

The cost of Putin’s cross-border desires will be the determining factor in his future with his homeland.