Beyond the horror movie headlines, there is plenty to look at to be impressed.
The media is salivating this morning over COVID cases in Florida, but it is not a symptom of the coronavirus; more like a side effect of their obsession with slandering the state, and its Governor, Ron DeSantis. Yesterday, Florida set a new record when it reported the highest single-day increase in coronavirus cases by any state since the outbreak. This jarring announcement requires a significant amount of analysis, but let us first get the hysteria out of the way.
Florida hit an alarming one-day high on Sunday with 15,300 new coronavirus cases, shattering both the state and national record for new cases reported since the start of the pandemic. With Sunday’s staggering surge in new cases, Florida eclipsed New York’s coronavirus peak of 12,274 cases on April 4.
”Alarming’’, ”shattering’’, ”staggering”, and other brash words are going to be used throughout the day, but the details are what matters. While that number does make the eyes pop open there is some sound reasoning behind it. Florida has this spike in caseloads as a result of a massive explosion of tests being conducted. The sharp increase arrived as over 135,000 tests were conducted on Saturday, so yes, while more cases are recorded it is a result of widespread testing.
So the cause and effect are explainable. Here is where things get more encouraging. While the number of tests mushroomed the positivity is actually decreasing as a percentage.
Florida reports a record 15k cases on massive day of testing
Positivity drops to 11 percent pic.twitter.com/1rlYJ1JmdJ
— Evan Axelbank Fox13 (@EvanAxelbank) July 12, 2020
Over the past 3 days, Florida has conducted well over 300,000 tests. During this same period, the infection rate has steadily dropped.
No question new cases >15k are bad in Florida. But it’s noteworthy that that figure came after 137k tests. In fact, test positivity is down for the 3rd straight day. And daily deaths (45) are still below states like NJ. Hospitalizations aren’t really pushing capacity either. Odd. pic.twitter.com/Jiu2f2kljR
— Ray Hennessey (@Hennesseyedit) July 12, 2020
This has to be considered good news, as it is taking a much broader search to come up with the caseloads. The contagion appears to be dropping in intensity and herd immunity is clearly in development. More positive news for the state is to be found when we look at the rates of infection and deaths as a result.
Since we are comparing the new spike in cases to other states, you can see how well Florida is managing the pandemic in comparison to those others. Per 100,000 people, Florida records 1,178 cases, and under 20 deaths. By comparison, New York City has double the cases and over ten times the deaths; 2,626-277/100K. Elsewhere, New York State shows 1,636-78/100K, Massachusetts 1,614-120/100K, and Arizona 1,672-130/100K.
All of this new increase follows the national trends, as shown here at The COVID Tracking Project. Testing is surging, and the confirmed cases are also sharply on the rise, but hospitalizations are climbing at a lower rate. Meanwhile, the death count – which the media loves to tally without context — is progressively dropping sharply at the same time. This is evidence of herd immunity taking effect.
We are gradually coming through the harsh effects of the pandemic and slowly, the country is developing its needed resistance. We may not be out of the clutches yet but there are indications that the clearing is becoming visible.