Midterms are rarely kind to the party in power, and that's given the Democratic Party new hope as we approach another election season in 2026. But a slew of largely unexpected retirements in the Senate has breathed new life into Republican prospects of not just keeping the chamber, but expanding its majority.
As RedState reported, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) announced on Wednesday morning that she will not be seeking reelection. Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) and Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) recently made the same announcement.
At least two of those three seats lean Democrat according to prognosticators like Cook Political, and you could argue Michigan would be a tough haul in an off-year election as well for Republicans. That's where the power of incumbency comes in. As a political party that doesn't hold a seat, you would almost always rather fight over an open seat rather than face an incumbent (unless they are mired in a major scandal).
So those three races just got a lot more winnable on paper, and that's important because elections tend to hinge on their own viability because of fundraising. When a seat looks like a long shot, less donor money comes in which in turn makes the seat even more of a long shot. But if things look more possible, then the war chests grow and the probability of winning goes up.
You can also get better candidates to run. For example, after Shaheen's announcement, former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu immediately indicated he was thinking about running. And while he's far from a fan favorite among the broader Republican electorate, he's exactly the kind of person who can beat a Democrat in that state. Likewise, primary voters should think carefully about who they choose in Michigan and Minnesota as well. Trump is not going to be on the ballot so they have to ask themselves whether they want to go with 2022's failed senate candidate strategy (Mehmet Oz, Hershel Walker, etc.) or something more tailored to each state.
The biggest problem for Democrats, though, is that even if they win the three states discussed above, they are still probably cooked. Georgia, which shifted red again in 2024, will see Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) defending his seat. Popular Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) is term-limited as governor, and if he ends up the Republican senate nominee, I'd suggest it's lights out for Ossoff.
Then there's the fact that Democrats just don't have many (if any) actual pickup opportunities. Are they going to win in Kentucky? Indiana? Florida? Ohio? Maybe you could argue North Carolina is in play depending on who the nominee is, but probably not. So with the GOP having 53 seats, you'd need a collapse of historic proportions for Republicans to lose the Senate. That's great news for the current administration, which needs partners in Congress to get things done.
Of course, if 2022 taught us anything, it's to never count your chickens before they hatch. We all thought a red wave was coming and it ended up a red trickle, with a tiny House majority and actually losing a Senate seat. With that said, the 2026 map is such a horror show for Democrats that it's hard to see how where they can find a net gain of four seats (a 50-50 tie means Vice President JD Vance is the tiebreaker). That's why Republicans padding the score in 2024 and getting to 53 seats was so important. Chuck Schumer should probably get used to being the Senate minority leader.
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