In perhaps the biggest news of the Israeli-Hamas war since the initial attacks on October 7th, claims are circulating that the Israeli Air Force bombed a hospital in Gaza. But like the claim that Israel bombed a highway some days ago that was debunked through video analysis, there appears to be more to this story. 

Here are some of the initial videos and statements being made.

🚨JUST IN: The moment an alleged Israeli Air Force struck the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in the Gaza Strip a few minutes ago.

Some are alleging the rocket could have been a failed Hamas rocket, however we have not seen any indication of those claims.

We do not yet know the source… pic.twitter.com/SX6JAHXetF

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) October 17, 2023

Let me preface the rest of this article by saying I don't know exactly what struck the hospital nor how badly it was actually hit. With that said, anytime Hamas reports something, it should be put through some kind of critical analysis.

For example, on its face, the reported death toll makes no sense. We are being asked to believe that in under an hour, Hamas was able to put out the fires, clear the rubble, and accurately count how many people died in the explosion. That is simply impossible, even as a close estimate. 

The best governments in the world would take a week to figure out a preliminary number of dead in a situation like this, yet the claimed death toll went from 200 initially to 500 within a few minutes, and within an hour, Hamas was claiming 900 dead. 

That's not to say this isn't a mass casualty event. Given the fact that Hamas likes to store weapons under hospitals, it's very possible that whatever struck the building ignited a much larger explosion (something caused the massive, accelerated fires shown in various videos, and high explosives from bombs don't normally do that).

As to what actually hit the hospital, the above video clearly includes the sound of something being propelled extremely quickly through the air. That would indicate that it was not a guided or unguided bomb from an IAF airplane (both of which freefall with no propellant). As far as I can find, there's not much of anything in the IAF's arsenal that would match what is in that video. Of course, that assumes the video is even of the event.

Putting aside the sound of the projectile, there other are reasons to believe this was a Hamas rocket that fell short or was intentionally launched into the hospital. It was reported on Telegram by Hamas itself that they were launching rocket attacks at the same time the hospital was hit. 

One minute before a rocket blew up a hospital in Gaza, Hamas announced on Telegram that they were launching their most robust weapons in the arsenal at Haifa.

No rockets reached Haifa. High probability these hit the hospital and set off secondary explosions within building. pic.twitter.com/xxfmzYxjru

— Jordan Schachtel @ dossier.today (@JordanSchachtel) October 17, 2023

This tracks because the reports of the hospital explosion happened around the same time I saw, from the outskirts of Sderot, multiple rockets being fired at Israel. Hopefully we'll get a clearer answer soon. https://t.co/knMUzmKax5

— Julio Rosas (@Julio_Rosas11) October 17, 2023

There are other videos floating around claiming to show a rocket going out of control and landing short. It's important to note that they are all unconfirmed, though, and they could easily be from other conflicts. 

Regardless, the message here should be caution. The sun will come up and there we will be able to get a better idea of the damage. Further, various videos will no doubt come out perhaps confirming what actually was flying through the air. Until then, no media outlet should be reporting anything without question.