A major Supreme Court ruling on Thursday has now put the future of the Republican House majority in jeopardy. In a 5-4 decision, with Justice Brett Kavanaugh joining the liberals of the court, Alabama’s congressional map was struck down as violating provisions of the Voting Rights Act (NBC News).

The full decision in Allen v. Milligan can be read by clicking here.

The Supreme Court on Thursday struck down Republican-drawn congressional districts in Alabama that civil rights activists say discriminated against Black voters in a surprise reaffirmation of the landmark Voting Rights Act.

The court in a 5-4 vote ruled against Alabama, meaning the map of the seven congressional districts, which heavily favors Republicans, will now be redrawn. Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh, both conservatives, joined the court’s three liberals in the majority.

Kavanaugh made four main arguments in his writing with the majority. His two primary ones revolve around intent and whether race-based redistricting violates the Constitution. On the first score, Kavanaugh argued that the VRA requires a test of effect, not just intent. That was used to counter the assertion by Alabama that race-neutral simulations should be used by courts to settle disputes. On the second score, Kavanaugh argued that redistricting done via race-based criteria does not violate the US Constitution.

The four other conservatives dissented, with Justice Neil Gorsuch suggesting that the VRA has now been sent down a “perilous path,” while Justice Clarence Thomas had the following to say.

“Alabama to intentionally redraw its longstanding congressional districts so that black voters can control a number of seats roughly proportional to the black share of the State’s population. Section 2 demands no such thing, and, if it did, the Constitution would not permit it.”

Certainly, this ruling reverses a trend by the high court of further limiting the VRA, which ironically began with Chief Justice John Roberts himself. The waters are a bit muddier today than yesterday, and it appears Republicans have hit a wall insofar as to how far they can push the envelope.

As to the electoral damage done, Republicans only hold a slim majority in the House of Representatives, a majority made more tenuous by Rep. George Santos’ recent arrest on fraud charges. That means every district counts and this ruling could be the difference in winning or losing the chamber in 2024.

In the immediate term, this affects at least two seats in Alabama, both of which will be easily won by Democrats. Further, the precedent being set that race-based drawing of districts doesn’t violate the US Constitution will no doubt be used in the future to push back on other Republican-drawn maps. There are already rumblings of challenges in Louisiana and South Carolina that could succeed.

What that means for the GOP is that state legislatures are going to have to be more aggressive where they can get away with it. Places like North Carolina and Ohio represent opportunities to redraw seats in favor of Republican candidates. The trigger must be pulled on those moves lest a deluge of changes in Alabama, New York, and other places overwhelm the ground gained in 2022.