We are now just three days away from election day as of this writing, and the stakes could not be higher. If you are a Republican, you should be feeling very good about how things look. The generic ballot average has swung heavily in favor of the GOP, and the senate polling has candidates like Blake Masters in Arizona and Mehmet Oz in Nevada on the brink of pulling stunners.
Even early voting data, which I always caution people to ignore, isn’t providing much hope for Democrats. And if you’ve followed electoral politics for any number of cycles, you know what that means. It’s time to start raving about the super-secret, unpolled youth vote that will rush in to save Democrats everywhere.
Behold, the most predictable cope imaginable, and what will likely be the final iteration before election day.
HUGE youth turnout numbers out of Pennsylvania: more than 60,000 young Democrats in PA have cast their ballots. This time, in 2018, that number was barely over 15,000. That's a *21%* increase! Young people are fired up and are voting. Don't believe otherwise.
— Victor Shi (@Victorshi2020) November 4, 2022
It’s “HUGE,” you guys. Never mind that Pennsylvania doesn’t stratify early ballots by age. Instead, this grifting clown, who has made multiple appearances on MSNBC pushing this garbage, is relying on a model” put out by Target Smart. What is Target Smart? It’s a Democrat firm that got absolutely embarrassed in 2020, with its early voting model showing that Republicans would lose both Texas and Florida.
But that’s not the best part of Shi’s post. Notice that he’s comparing things to 2018. Guess what Pennsylvania didn’t have in 2018? That would be no-excuse mail-in voting. In other words, of course, you would expect more young voters to be using mail-in and early voting this go around because it wasn’t a thing back in 2018.
Then there are people overdosing on hopium about young women voters showing up because of Dobbs.
NEW from me: Women under 25 are going to have a seismic effect on the midterms, and have registered at historic levels since Roe was overturned. Are we ready to recognize their power to bring Democrats to victory?https://t.co/WMpiwRvyXe pic.twitter.com/dT9U8MjMJr
— Marisa Kabas (@MarisaKabas) November 4, 2022
Oh, look. More useless Target Smart data. Honestly, it should be a crime what that organization is doing to Democrats. Giving them false hope based on silly models that can’t even begin to actually predict the impact of early voting on final election results.
Regardless, no, I’m not ready to recognize the power of young women voters enraged about abortion because it’s obviously being overstated. There is no evidence there’s some massive registration advantage, and Republicans have consistently overperformed Democrats in registering new voters in battleground states over the last year.
But to put a bow on this, what these people are saying is also easily disprovable. For example, using the total number of certain voters is useless when you have no baseline to compare it against. In Georgia, though, they do stratify early vote reports by age, and the results do not show young voters overwhelming the polls.
— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) November 4, 2022
There are a lot of influential people who should lose their influence after this election. It’s one thing to be hopeful. It’s another to push largely made-up and highly misleading data to paint a false picture of the electorate before the first vote is counted. These grifters know what they are doing.
The Democrat cope this cycle has gone from clinging to summer polling to dismissing polls, to overanalyzing early voting, and now to clinging to fantasies about massive youth voter turnout. In the end, though, the fundamentals remain the same. Trust them, and you’ll like almost certainly look like a genius come late Tuesday evening.