If you were looking for evidence that the race is continuing to tighten (and weren’t convinced by the RCP average closing rapidly), here’s another bit of information to sink your teeth into. The new Monmouth poll of Pennsylvania is out and the crucial swing state is not trending Joe Biden’s way. In fact, it is showing exactly the spread the final Monmouth poll in 2016 showed. Trump would go on to defeat Hillary Clinton in the state, helping catapult him to the presidency.
Here are the numbers.
Likely voters, high turnout:
49% Biden (52%)
46% Trump (42%)
— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) September 2, 2020
This is major movement for Trump. He was down 10 points in this same poll in July and has closed to within 4 points. That’s the high turnout model. If turnout falls somewhere in between, Trump’s deficit is shown to be even lower.
State polls like these are arguably much more important than what some national poll is showing. There’s likely no real path for Trump to win the popular vote. Liberal bastions like California and New York are just too energized to not run up the score in that regard. Trump’s real path is yet another electoral college win going through the rust belt. A recent poll had him nearly tied in Minnesota. That scared Biden so much that his campaign started buying ads there. Some Wisconsin polls are tightening, and now Pennsylvania is getting closer. Remember, Trump only has to win one of those states plus keep if he goes on to win Florida, North Carolina, etc. on election night.
But it’s not just Trump that got some good news here. Republicans running for Congress are also getting a boost.
In Pennsylvania’s six most competitive House districts, Republicans have a 10 pt edge on the generic ballot, per Monmouth. https://t.co/8UywAhknoJ
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) September 2, 2020
I certainly wouldn’t predict the House in play at this point, but it’s good news for the GOP to see the generic ballot starting to go their way in these swing states, which also happen to be full of swing Congressional districts.
This race is far, far from over. We haven’t even had a debate yet and Trump looks to have pulled himself out of the pit he was formerly in. If he can keep chipping away, he can be in striking position come November. Of course, if he goes on to lose the popular vote again but takes enough swing states to carry him to victory, the meltdown on the left is going to be epic. For that reason alone, you should get out and vote, but also for far more important reasons, such as saving the country from the throes of the revolutionaries controlling Biden’s campaign.
(Please follow me on Twitter! @bonchieredstate)