So You're Saying There's a Chance? Polling in CA Gubernatorial Race Takes Surprising Twist

I’m not going to lie: the numbers are still daunting, because California is dominated by a 16-year-long one-party leftist rule and a union stranglehold on virtually all the levers of power. This, after all, is the state that watched Gov. Gavin Newsom begin his quest to burn the state to the ground and rewarded him with another term so he could finish the job.

Many people assume that because the state is so crazy, we’re all slobbering progressive loons. True, there are a lot of those, but there are almost six million registered Republicans, and Los Angeles County has the largest number of registered Republicans of any county in the country. Bet you didn’t have that on your bingo card.

It’s just that there are more of them.

GOP gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton therefore faces an uphill battle against his listless Democrat machine candidate Xavier Becerra, but some numbers just came in that almost nobody was expecting: Hilton is gaining ground. Serious ground:

🚨 SHOCK POLL: It’s a SINGLE-DIGIT race for governor.

Becerra 49% / Hilton 41% / 10% Undecided

We’ve cut the margin from 25% ➡️ 8% in less than two months! Our campaign is SURGING; the Machine is reeling. Keep the pressure on! pic.twitter.com/x9L4W4Vwdz

— Steve Hilton (@SteveHiltonx) August 24, 2026

It’s a notable shift from other recent polls, and shows that Becerra, who is accused of losing track of tens of thousands of unaccompanied migrant children during his tenure as Biden’s HHS head, is not exactly setting the electorate on fire.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra’s lead over Republican rival Steve Hilton has shrunk dramatically in a new statewide poll, with the two candidates now separated by just eight points.

Becerra leads Hilton 49.2% to 41% among likely November voters, while 9.8% remain undecided, according to a new poll shared exclusively with the California Post.

The result is far tighter than a Berkeley poll released days earlier that showed Becerra with a commanding 18-point advantage.

Crucially, Becerra falls below the 50% mark for the first time in the general-election polling – leaving the Democratic frontrunner short of majority support with just over two months until Election Day.

MORE: 'How Could You Do This?' Another Trafficking Victim Cries, While Xavier Becerra Dodges CA Press

'They Kept Me Like a Slave': Teen Says Becerra's Child Migrant Program Ended in Sexual Abuse

For a time this spring, it looked like a true renaissance could finally be hitting the state. It was a real possibility that Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco could go one-two in the primary, meaning they would have faced off in November and the Democrats would have been shut out. Fire victim Spencer Pratt, meanwhile, brought unbelievable energy to the Los Angeles mayoral race, and he seemed to have major momentum. 

Sadly, days after the primary officially closed (because California vote-counting is an international joke), he lost the second-place spot to socialist wacko Councilwoman Nithya Raman.

Steve Hilton has shown over and over that he’s a sensible conservative candidate who is proposing real solutions to California’s endemic problems like crime and homelessness. Do these new numbers make me think that he’s now certain to win? No. I’ve lived here too long and had my heart broken too many times to get my hopes too high — steady as she goes.

Well here’s a hat we can all agree on! 😂

56% of Californians say the state is heading in the wrong direction under Newsom.

Now the Machine is lining up Xavier Becerra—but he's even WORSE.

Same policies. Same costs. Same corruption. Vote for change! pic.twitter.com/ieqaWpoaxR

— Steve Hilton (@SteveHiltonx) August 24, 2026

They do show, however, that more and more Californians are waking up to the fact that the progressive regime is an abject failure and is leading the state to ruin. Change takes time, and one can only hope that’s the way the electorate is headed, whether now or in the next few years. Otherwise, what was once the American dream will continue to morph into an enclave for entertainment execs and tech billionaires surrounded by a fourth world country that they never encounter.

Editor’s Note: California is the poster child for everything that is wrong with the Democrat Party and the “progressive” movement.

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