How Close Is Iran to Getting Nuclear Weapons? New Info Alarms Intelligence Officials.

AP Photo/Vahid Salemi

New intelligence concerning Iran’s nuclear program has intelligence officials worried that the Islamic Republic is closer to getting nuclear weapons than they had previously thought. Officials are focusing on computer modeling, according to Axios:


U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies are looking into new information about computer modeling by Iranian scientists that could be used for research and development of nuclear weapons, two U.S. officials plus one current and one former Israeli official told Axios.

Why it matters: The purpose of the modeling is unclear. Some U.S. and Israeli officials said the intelligence is a worrying signal about Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions, but other officials on both sides said it as a "blip" that doesn't represent a shift in Iran's policy and strategy towards weaponization. Iran has repeatedly denied wanting nuclear weapons.

“Iran has repeatedly denied wanting nuclear weapons,” the above paragraph states. They’ve denied a lot of things and have mostly proven to be bald-faced liars, so that tells us nothing.

U.S. officials are scheduled to meet at the White House Thursday for the U.S.-Israel strategic consultative group (SCG) to discuss the concerning developments, the first such meeting between the U.S. and Israel about the issue since March 2023.


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Although administration intelligence officials are downplaying the danger of a nuclear Iran, as they usually do, others aren’t so sanguine:

"For years now the intelligence community has assessed Iran is not actively working to build a nuclear weapon, that it might be building out the assembly line for fissile material but that we had no indication of active weaponization work. If true, this would upend that assessment and suggest Iran has a shorter runway to a bomb than previously reported," said Richard Goldberg, senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based nonpartisan national security think tank.


Goldberg continued, saying that as the Biden administration continues to appease Iran, the mullahs are growing closer to their goal. "The administration pegged that to be around 18 months while the Israelis said a year or less,” he warned. “But if weaponization work is already going on, if the computer modeling is already being perfected, that timeline may be far shorter." 

Obviously, a  nuclear Iran is a terrifying prospect for the world, but especially for Israel. The question is—will they be forced to take action, and if so, when?



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