The Rust-Belt Senate Races Are Very Susceptible to Democrat-Biased Polls

Matt Towery, a respectable pollster from Insider Advantage, recently X/tweeted:

What we are starting to see in our surveys…R candidates are closing the gap…we find independents leaning heavily Democrat BUT in most states there is a 20 point or so “enthusiastic to vote gap” with independents not motivated to vote. Same with the youngest of voters, while 65 and over are the most enthusiastic. Most of these races are not nearly the blow outs many of the polls suggest. And we have not adjusted our turnout weighting to reflect this as it is too soon and early voting may contradict these numbers.

You don’t say? 

Last week, I theorized that the idea of a “blue wave” might be just a tad overstated, primarily because “polling continues to over-measure leftist voters.” Among those leftists over-measured are the young. Here, Towery reports, they are not motivated to vote. He also points out that true independents – who lean Democrat this year according to virtually all polling – are also strikingly unenthusiastic. Meanwhile, Republicans are closing the enthusiasm gap with their own voters. Because, you see, the president and the vice president and the GOP are working to drive up turnout with the MAGA base, as well as traditional Republicans, by visits to “red areas” and enormous spending. 

Granted, we are not (yet) seeing any real changes at the RCP average for presidential approval or in the generic. But in addition to the over-measuring of leftist voters, the polling may also have a problem in under-measuring right-wing voters because they are less enthusiastic about voting (but will likely still do so). 

In the upper chamber, the Republicans have a 53-47-seat majority, with 35 seats up. The Democrats need a net pickup of four seats to win control. But only two Republican seats – Maine and North Carolina – are in competitive states. The other 20 GOP seats are in states Donald Trump won by double digits. Picking up a double-digit seat for the opposite party rarely happens. 

Even if the Democrats truly have an 8.3 percent generic edge in those double-digit states, that by itself may not be enough for double-digit states. 

The Democrats especially have a big problem in the “Rust-Belt” (plus Iowa) Senate races. Since 2016, the GOP has consistently overperformed September polling. More specifically, Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini has found that in Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio, 93 percent of polls overstated the Democrat and the average miss was above 6 percent. 

Which brings me neatly to those three competitive races:

Iowa: Joni Ernst (retiring) / Lean R

GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson (IA-01) is squaring off against Democrat state Rep. Josh Turek. Turek has a statistically insignificant lead in the RCP average, 45.9 to 45.6 percent. Hinson has an advantage because President Trump won the state by double digits, and she represents one of the three competitive districts, which she has convincingly locked down, while the fourth district is heavily Republican. But Turek has an advantage because Iowa is traditionally pacifistic and isolationist, so the Iran war is unpopular, and Iowa farmers tend to dislike the Trump tariffs. In late September, Hinson called for an end to Iran war. The GOP has led in total campaign spending $55.1 million to $38.2 million and will continue to have a $6 million edge in future reservations. Recently, the GOP's Senate Leadership Fund announced another almost $5 million for Hinson. Note that Iowa Republicans are particularly hard to poll, according to a Democrat-leaning number cruncher. Considering that the undecided are largely three-time Republican voters and Turek is only at 46 percent, and Rep. Hinson is an excellent candidate, I expect Hinson to win this race.

Michigan: Gary Peters (retiring) / Tilt R

Abdul El-Sayed, the radical Muslim socialist, continues to have a horrific post-primary. El Sayed is up 48 to 44.5 percent in the RCP average over Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers (MI-08). But El-Sayed was up a lot in the primary polls too, before he won by one point. The Free Beacon just exposed El-Sayed’s corrupt $9000 a month “consulting” deal in a Democrat County, which began after he started running for Senate. His 2012 essay in which he criticized the growth in federal breast cancer research funding as disturbing was uncovered. El-Sayed’s soft-on-drugs (fentanyl) approach also came to light. He lost the endorsement of Michigan firefighters union. Normally loyal Jewish Democrats in the state are still leery of him. El-Sayed continues to have problems with equally reliable African American Democrats, despite (because?) his claim that he is one of them. Rogers has released an attack ad against El-Sayed for being a dangerous Islamist national security threat. The GOP has outspent the Democrats $59 million to 43.8 million and will almost double it in future reservations. Recently, the GOP's Senate Leadership Fund announced another $1 million for Rogers. Considering El-Sayed is a target-rich environment for Mike Rogers, and Rogers’ forces have a yuge spending edge, I continue to believe that El-Sayed can only win if Rogers makes a big mistake, or the Democrat tide gets too large and drags El-Sayed into office. 

Ohio: Jon Husted / Appointed in 2025 / Lean R

Former Sen. Sherrod Brown is trying to win back a Senate seat, a feat that last occurred in 1988. But Brown faces an appointed incumbent, Jon Husted, who himself has won numerous minor statewide offices, and Ohio has since become heavily Republican. Brown has a 47.1 to 44 percent lead in the RCP average. However, in his losing race in 2024, Brown only lost his lead in the polling in October, and here there have already been many polls showing Husted up. The GOP has now outspent the Democrats $144 million to $103 million and will almost double it in future reservations. Recently, the GOP's Senate Leadership Fund announced another almost $10 million for Husted. This race is getting “vulgar”, with Brown releasing an attack ad against Husted for supposedly talking down to people in poverty. Although I am not usually a fan of reading the early vote, it is worth noting that the Ohio early mail-in ballots so far have been a disaster for the Democrats.  Considering that the undecided are largely three-time Republican voters, Brown is a loser retread at only 47 percent, and Husted is an excellent candidate, I expect Husted to win this race.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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