China Puts Pressure on Iran to Rein in Those Houthis

Could China manage something that the U.S. Navy and Royal Navy have not been able to do -- namely, convince Iran to tamp down the Houthis' attacks on Red Sea shipping?

Color me skeptical.

Chinese officials have asked their Iranian counterparts to help rein in attacks on ships in the Red Sea by the Iran-backed Houthis, or risk harming business relations with Beijing, four Iranian sources and a diplomat familiar with the matter said.
The discussions about the attacks and trade between China and Iran took place at several recent meetings in Beijing and Tehran, the Iranian sources said, declining to provide details about when they took place or who attended.
"Basically, China says: 'If our interests are harmed in any way, it will impact our business with Tehran. So tell the Houthis to show restraint'," said one Iranian official briefed on the talks, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity.

Iran may heed China's warning; then again, they may not. Iran is a theocracy; trade is a concern for them but it's not the concern. And while China is a trade partner, the United States is the Great Satan; and Iran's Houthis proxies are embarrassing the Great Satan right now, mostly because the addled Biden leads the Great Satan.

However: China does buy a lot of Iranian oil. China also ships a lot of cargo through the Red Sea. Tamping down the Houthis is in China's interest.

But, is it in Iran's interest?

While China has been Iran's biggest trading partner for the past decade, their trade relationship is lopsided.
Chinese oil refiners, for example, bought over 90% of Iran's crude exports last year, according to tanker tracking data from trade analytics firm Kpler, as U.S. sanctions kept many other customers away and Chinese firms profited from heavy discounts.
Iranian oil, though, only accounts for 10% of China's crude imports and Beijing has an array of suppliers that could plug shortfalls from elsewhere.

It's unclear whether China's influence would be enough to convince Iran to back off on its support for the Houthis. Sure, China can get along without Iran's trade better than Iran can get along without China, but that may not be enough to convince the mullahs -- and it is likewise unclear as to whether Iran can convince the Houthis to back off. This rag-tag bunch of Bronze-Age barbarians, armed with tech supplied by Iran, have managed to seize control of a major global shipping lane, and have exposed the incompetence of the Western world's miltiaries.

Houthis Force US-Escorted Convoy to Retreat

Iran is the number-one state sponsor of terrorism. They support the Houthis; they support Hezbollah; they support Hamas. Their motivations and priorities are inconceivable to most of us in the civilized world. They are inconceivable to the U.S., and they are inconceivable to China. (I'd add that, in most things, China's motivations and priorities are inconceivable to us.)

But the real issue is this: While China may have some influence in Iran, how much influence does Iran have with the Houthis? Iran's only real recourse is to deny the Houthis a resupply. The Houthis may back down when they run out of weapons. Then again, they may not. If we learned nothing else from the Somalian pirates, we learned that a band of barbarians with a Zodiac boat and a few AKs could seize control of a cargo ship. The Houthis can still cause a lot of problems with the Red Sea shipping lane even without cruise missiles and advanced drones. We have also learned that the U.S. and the U.K. have been pretty ineffective, under current leadership, in keeping the Red Sea open.

Can Iran rein the Houthis in? As I said above, color me skeptical.