Pollster hammers in some nails to the R2000 coffin.


Much as I’d like the dKos/R2000 dustup to be the metaphorical equivalent of this, Mark Blumenthal’s comments here suggest that Research 2000 is, well, toast.

By far the most troubling part of [Research 2000 president Del] Ali’s response comes in these two sentences (left in their original form including typographical errors):

Regardless though. to you so-called polling experts, each sub grouping, gender, race, party ID, etc must equal the top line number or come pretty darn close. Yes we weight heavily and I will, using te margin of error adjust the top line and when adjusted under my discretion as both a pollster and social scientist, therefore all sub groups must be adjusted as well.

“Top line” in this context means the results for the full sample rather than a subgroup, but it still unclear exactly which “top line numbers” Ali is referring to. If he means the results of attitude questions — vote preference horse-race numbers, favorable ratings, issue questions or possibly even the party identification question — he comes close to admitting a practice that every pollster I know would consider deceptive and unethical. “Scientific” political surveys are supposed to provide objective measurements of attitudes and preferences. As such pollsters and social scientists never have the “discretion” to simply “adjust” the substantive results of their surveys, within the margin of error or otherwise. As a pollster friend put it in an email he sent me a few minutes after reading Ali’s statement: “That’s not polling. It’s Jeanne Dixon polling.”

I mean, don’t get me wrong: there’s nothing that the VRWC enjoys more than watching the Other Side have a knife fight in an alley. But this is pretty harsh. No documentation, absurdly cheap pricing, lack of a proper contact, a history of legal action, and now the suggestion that a fudge factor was added to the final results… if all of this is true, then the primary reason that R2000 got away with this for so long was because the company was selling its product to a 100%, unalloyed, unmitigatedly stupid goofball* who enjoyed having his preconceived notions fulfilled.

Word of advice for said goofball: go with Rasmussen next time.  Or Public Policy Polling, if you can’t bear backtracking on your crusade against Scott Rasmussen, too.  Neither firm will tell you what you want to hear, and that’s kind of the point.

(Additional snark to this post contributed by various individuals.)

Moe Lane

*One that waited until now to seek legal redress – and not, say, last November.  I mean, really.  14% for a third-party candidate? In New Jersey?

Crossposted to Moe Lane.


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Liberals Who Rely On Contrat Law Make Me Laugh...

Swamp_Yankee (Diary) Sunday, July 4th at 7:06PM EST (link)

especially when that liberal is Kos. Doesn’t Kos realize that there is no ral contract law anymore. Liberals spent two generations trying to destroy contract law for feel-good-awe-poor-thing-let-bleeding-heart judges-decide law. Otherwise known as the rule of man, as opposed to the rule of law.

Kos is a big man now. Ali is in debt. Poor, poor, poor Ali. I’m sure a good liberal judge will consider their socio-economic backgrounds and realize that Kos is the big man and Ali is the little man, which means that Ali automatically wins.

 

I'm rooting for Kos here

Neil Stevens (Diary) Sunday, July 4th at 8:09PM EST (link)

I’m selfish. Kos’s polls asked good questions in important states and I want him to win and start buying polls from a better pollster than R2k. I wanted that even when we just thought R2k was lousy at it, and not just a fake.

Fact is, few national pollsters have much volume at all, and we need more than just Rasmussen out there.

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Mason-Dixon Should Expand

Swamp_Yankee (Diary) Sunday, July 4th at 8:55PM EST (link)

They are very good and legit

 
 

DOOM!!!!!!!!!!!!

E Pluribus Unum (Diary) Sunday, July 4th at 9:44PM EST (link)

Every penny the left wastes is money Soros can’t spend sowing the destruction he sows.

Kill the Terrorists
Protect the Borders
Punch the Hippies h/t IMAO

 

It is called B I A S

jccbin (Diary) Sunday, July 4th at 11:08PM EST (link)

And it is why no scientific experiment that cannot be done in a double-blind fashion is rightfully suspect.

Human bias sneaks in, no matter how well we think we are ferreting it out. From the clear manipulations of question wording to the manipulations of the tone of voice or order of options, to the “adjustments” described above (“these numbers can’t be right. I can better guess the number of X, Y and Z’s out there!”)

This is a unique chance for those of us who see this bias all the time in the media to show that it does exist to our liberal acquaintances. ahem.

Don’t show it to your Progressive friends, though. They already know about it and probably encouraged it to begin with….

Drat my double-negatives.

jccbin (Diary) Sunday, July 4th at 11:09PM EST (link)

Sorry, I meant to post:

And it is why all scientific experiments that cannot be done in a double-blind fashion are rightfully suspect.