With less than three weeks to go until the hotly contested 2026 midterm elections, it's maybe a tad early to be looking ahead to 2028, when we'll choose a new president. Or is it? What happens in these midterms is bound to have a large impact on what happens in 2028, especially if Democrats manage to leverage in any number of their destructive policies, and drag the Trump administration through an endless round of punitive investigations and impeachments.
By now, though, most information junkies and followers of politics — and if you're reading this, you're more than likely to be one or both — have their minds made up who they will be voting for, and hopefully will get out and get it done. And the 2028 campaign starts the moments the polls close on Election Day, 2026. So, it's about time to start thinking ahead. And that look ahead, right now, appears to show Vice President JD Vance as the prohibitive front-runner for the 2028 Republican nomination, according to a new Center Square poll.
With the 2028 presidential election just over two years away, Vice President JD Vance is gaining steam, reaching a high of 44% support in the latest of five Republican presidential primary polls conducted by The Center Square over the past year.
The Center Square conducted polls on the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential primaries in October 2025, March, June, August and from Oct. 5-7, 2026. Vance received 38% in the first poll, which included nine prominent Republicans, but his share climbed to 41% in August and 44% this month, even as the number of Republicans included in the survey grew to 14.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio came in a distant second behind Vance at 18%, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with 8% and Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz with 5%.
The breakdown yielded no surprises.
Vance’s numbers were consistent across demographic, geographic and party-affiliation groups surveyed, hovering in the 40s across nearly every category. Among respondents, 44% of men and 43% of women chose Vance, while support varied by just three percentage points across age groups, from 42% among voters ages 30-44 to 45% among those 65 and older. His support varied little across education levels, staying within a four-point range.
The largest difference was between Republicans, 45% of whom supported Vance, and Republican-leaning independents, at 35%. Black respondents were the only other group in which fewer than 40% chose Vance, at 39%, while he fared best among Midwestern respondents, at 50%.
Right now, well before any primaries are even a dim, distant promise on the horizon, it sure looks like it's JD Vance's race to lose, should he decide he wants the job. Of course, much will depend on the next two years of the Trump administration, and the successes of the administration. If Democrats are running Congress, mind you, they will deny the president every success they can, even the ones that are inarguably good for the country. That's just how they roll these days.
The Center Square poll here seems to be supported by the RealClear polling average for the race, which has VP Vance leading the pack by a wide margin.
But here's the fun part: The Democrats' seemingly prohibitive front-runner right now? Kamala Harris. That's right, the former understudy to the befuddled old Joe Biden. Kamala Harris, best-known for her eyebrow-raising word salads and her inability to string together a coherent sentence if you spotted her two verbs and a conjunction, is the Democrats' current front-runner for another run. That's something that should have any prospective Vance campaign team rubbing their hands together in glee.
Then again: In 2008, at this stage in the game and even later, everyone who was watching, including me, was pretty sure the 2008 race would be between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. Look how that worked out.
For now, though, the odds are on JD Vance for 2028, and even if it's not him, I'd much rather have the Republicans' field than the Democrats'. Oh, and Mr. Vice President? If you run, take my advice and pick Marco Rubio as your running mate.