Looking Up: Storm Clouds Over Steaks, Sunshine on Trade Balance

A couple of economic indicators were announced on Wednesday. First, from CNBC's Rick Santelli, comes an announcement that trade deficits are down considerably, for the month of August - the report was delayed by the government shutdown. Taken with a bit of caution, that's good news.

NEW: The trade deficit in August* fell to $59.6 billion — the lowest of the year so far.

*This data was extremely delayed because of the Democrat Shutdown pic.twitter.com/F7RGyhJUnT
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) November 19, 2025

Mr. Santelli said:

Trade balance for August, as Andrew pointed out, very many weeks late, comes in at minus $59.6 billion, which means that the balance is a deficit. It's very close to what we were expecting. But when you consider that minus 59 is kind of the new mark to pay attention to, that is the low line of the year. It's the smallest deficit of the year.

It's improving; the July numbers were over $70 billion. But it's got a ways to go yet. The impact of President Trump's tariffs and trade deals are not yet fully known, but this would appear to be a positive.

Trump’s ‘Inflated Beef’ Claims Spur DOJ Investigation Into Meat Packers

Then, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appeared on Fox News Sunday Morning Futures with host Maria Bartiromo, which seems to be becoming a regular Sunday morning appearance for Mr. Bessent. In this appearance, Mr. Bessent discussed the economy and the possible $2,000 tariff rebates. Some highlights:

During an exclusive interview on "Sunday Morning Futures" with FOX Business’ Maria Bartiromo, Bessent warned that the "perfect storm" is brewing for inflation while spotlighting federal responses.
"This is the perfect storm," Bessent responded to a question about the possibility of $10-per-pound beef next year. "We inherited this terrible inflation. We are flattening it out. I believe we're going to push it down, and energy prices are down, interest rates are down. But the real thing that is going to happen [is] that [this] is going to give Americans real purchasing power increases. It's going to be through growth."

Growth will be key; it always is. Beef prices as a solo indicator, though, that's an issue; there are more factors than just Bidenflation going on here, including the shutdown of imports of Mexican beef due to the screwworm infestation, and droughts in some of America's best grazing lands, which is causing ranchers to decrease herd sizes - reducing supply and necessarily driving up prices.

Then, there's the rebates:

With inflationary pressures still at play across the country, the Trump administration announced last week it plans to use tariff revenue to issue $2,000 payments to low- and middle-income Americans, with any remaining funds directed toward reducing the nation’s massive debt.
"We need legislation for that," Bessent said of the potential checks. "Thanks to him keeping his campaign promises to working Americans … the working class … [no] tax on tips, Social Security overtime, we are going to see a big bump there in the first quarter with the refunds and the real incomes … Sending $2,000 refunds … that would be for working families. We'll have an income limit."

It seems a long shot, Congress going along with this scheme. It may help them in the midterms, but it may hurt them with some debt hawks on the right. No details have yet been released on this proposal; for example, nothing about what that income limit might be.

Economics is called the "dismal science" for a reason. Like the planet's climate, a nation's economy is vast, chaotic, and complex beyond imagining. We can identify broad trends, but so far there has been no Hari Seldon arise among us who can do more, who can make specific predictions, no matter how hard some politicians try to convince us otherwise. The best we can say right now is that things seem to be looking up - and that the GOP's continued control of Congress and, later, the White House, depends in large part on making sure that things keep looking up, and to spread that message far and wide.

Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump’s leadership and bold policies, America’s economy is back on track.

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