Speaking in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, President Trump mentioned Iran and was quick to mention a possible carrot to be offered to the Islamic Republic, while not mentioning any possible sticks. Given the forum and the nature of the visit, that's not surprising. But what's interesting is the historical comparison the president drew.

President Trump: "I'm here today not merely to condemn the past chaos of Iran’s leaders, but to offer them a new path and a much better path toward a far better and more hopeful future." pic.twitter.com/zM63HajDNV

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) May 13, 2025

The president said:

I'm here today not merely to condemn the past chaos of Iran’s leaders, but to offer them a new path and a much better path toward a far better and more hopeful future. As I've shown repeatedly, I am more than willing to end past conflicts and forge new partnerships for a better and more stable world even if our differences may be very profound. Which, obviously, they are in the case of Iran. I have never believed in having permanent enemies, I am different than a lot of people think. I don't like permanent enemies. But sometimes, you need enemies to do the job, you have to do it right. Enemies get you motivated, in fact some of the closest friends of the United States or America (are) nations we fought wars against in generations past. Now they are our friends and our allies.  

A prime example of the kind of former enemy/current ally would be, of course, Japan, with whom we fought a vicious war only 80 years ago, and who is our best ally in the Pacific today, excepting possibly Australia. But could Iran, goaded by either carrot or stick, make the kind of transformation Japan made, post-1945?

It doesn't seem likely. The militaristic leaders of pre-1945 Japan were largely removed by the war; killed, committed suicide, or were imprisoned. The Emperor, who is not only a secular head of state but also a religious figure in the Shinto faith, had declared the conflict at an end, noting that the Japanese people had suffered enough.

The Bronze Age barbarians that are currently ruling Iran have no such concern over the suffering of their people. It seems certain that only the stick will work. 

Note that this stick doesn't necessarily have to be military.

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It seems pretty clear that President Trump is offering the Iranian people a way out here, and a way out is what they need - a way out from under the rule of the mullahs who have held their boots on the necks of the Iranian people since 1979. But it's unclear as to how well the carrot alone will work.

We can hold Iran in check. We can exert serious financial pressures on their leadership. We can further isolate the rogue nation, curb its proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, and elsewhere. But Iran will never join the community of nations until the mullahs are taken out of power and Iran has a secular government instead of a vicious, fundamentalist Shiite theocracy.

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