We've all been having a lot of fun following the triumphs of the second Trump presidency. All of us to the right of the Democratic Party, which right now would appear to be about 80 percent of the country if polling is any indicator, are watching as the Trump administration proceeds doggedly on the path set for it by President Trump, and by the voters who put him back in the Oval Office by a comfortable, mandate-indicating margin.
It sure seems like Donald Trump has been back in office for a long time, doesn't it? But it hasn't yet been 90 days, much less the classic first 100 days. But there's a catch - there's always a catch. While the president has been doing all he can do with the executive branch alone, any long-term changes will require legislation. That requires Congress to act. And that means we need a GOP majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Right now, the GOP margin in the House is thin - 220 Republicans, 213 Democrats, with 2 vacancies, both (sadly) resulting from deaths - but in Democrat-held districts. That margin has gotten thinner as several House members have taken Trump administration gigs, and some House Republicans are thinking of seeking other offices.
The midterms are only 19 months away. That can be an eternity in politics, but it can also shoot by very quickly. The time to start thinking about keeping the House and Senate in Republican hands is now.
There are already a few key seats that we will have to fight to keep.
Republicans are most concerned about three House members eyeing statewide office:
- Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) is considering running for New York governor. Trump lost Lawler's district by a percentage point in November, while Lawler won by six points.
- Rep. John James (R-Mich.) is weighing a run for Michigan governor. Trump won James' district by a percentage point in 2020 and six points in 2024. James won his race by six points.
- Andy Barr (R-Ky.) may launch a bid to replace retiring former Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell. Trump won Barr's district by 15 points in November, and Barr won by 26. But Democrats hold a registration edge and Barr survived a competitive contest in 2018.
If the GOP were to lose those three seats - fates forfend - and the two vacancies go back to Democrats - that alone would erase the Republican majority. And right here, in Alaska, our new GOP at-large Representative Nick Begich III is expected to find himself facing another tough race in 2026. Anchorage and Juneau Democrats, no doubt fueled by tons of money from Outside, will surely target that seat, which was held by Democrat Mary Peltola before Nick's 2024 victory.
The GOP majority is too thin. There's too great a risk of losing it. We can't allow that to happen. We can't afford to make President Trump an ineffective lame duck for the last two years of his presidency, and we can't afford another hateful Democrat-run Impeach-A-Palooza to hamstring President Trump even more.
There are times when party trumps person. We may well be in the position of voting for a Republican, some of whose positions we dislike. Trust me, as an Alaskan, I know what that's like. But these midterms may well be the most crucial midterm elections in the history of the republic, and the opposition is going to try every dirty trick in the book to wrest away control of the House and Senate - and as we all know, the Democrats have a big, dirty book of dirty tricks.
Having the majority brings a lot with it. The majority party decides who chairs which committee, and which legislation moves to a vote. A party in the majority has a lot of clout that the minority just doesn't have. Democrats, we should note, are good at one thing: When they have power, they use it. We can't afford to let them have that power. We can't afford to let them block what we're trying to do. We can't afford to let them block the legislative actions that may be pulling our nation back from the brink of ruin; we need only look back to before 71 days ago to see what that would look like.
Our people already in office need to start thinking ahead as well.
NRCC spokesperson Will Kiley told Axios: "If a member decides to retire or run for another office, we simply ask for a heads up so we can ensure there's a strong candidate in place to defend the seat and build on our momentum to expand our Republican majority."
It's human nature for the enterprising to seek to move up. And we are the party of the enterprising. Current Republicans in the House and Senate, however, need to start thinking strategically. They are supposed to be in office to do what's right by the people of the United States, and in many of these races, that means staying put and using the big lever of incumbency to make sure that seat stays in Republican hands.
This will also require some tough decisions. Only last week, Representative Elise Stefanik (R-NY), at President Trump's request, withdrew from consideration to be the U.S. Ambassador to the UN. She would have been good at that job, but the president noted that we need her in the House, and Representative Stefanik clearly agreed. She did the right thing for the country, and we should all take a lesson from that.
See Also: NY Rep. Elise Stefanik Speaks Out After Her UN Nomination As Ambassador Is Pulled
We voters need to do our part, too. In some races, that means sucking it up and voting for a Republican who isn't all we'd like, because it's better than a Democrat. It's better to have a Republican that agrees with us 60 percent of the time than a Democrat who agrees with us 10 percent of the time - if that. It's better to have a seat marked "R" than "D," if it helps us keep the majority. It's better to have a Republican Speaker than a Democrat one. It's better to have a Republican Senate Majority leader and a Democrat Senate Minority leader than it is the other way around.
As in any election, in the 2026 midterms, turnout will be key. Yes, it's 19 months away, but we must remind ourselves, every day between now and then, how important this is. Every time we clap our hands over another MAGA victory, remember the midterms. Every time we see President Trump chalk up another win, remember the midterms. Every time the Republican Congress sends President Trump a bill that furthers the goal of making America great again, remember the midterms. And on that day, vote. If you can vote early, do so, and get that vote banked. If not, vote on Election Day. If you have to drive forty miles to vote, drive it. If you have to walk five miles to vote, walk it. If you have to crawl on your hands and knees for six blocks to vote, crawl it. If you have friends and relatives who are voting Republican, make sure they vote. Drive them to the polling place. Walk them in. Make sure they vote. If you have friends and relatives who are voting Democrat, well, leave them alone.
We need every vote. We need every seat. We need every representative and every senator we can get. We need to not only keep the majority but to expand it. We have to vote. Vote as though the future of our republic depends on it - because it does.
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