Politics and Conflict
A few weeks back, mostly out of curiosity, my wife and I watched the 2024 Alex Garland film "Civil War." I won't trouble you with a review here; there are a lot of issues with the film, not the least of which is an alliance between Texas and California (!), but taken as a whole, it's mostly a tale of a team of journalists navigating a nasty, violent landscape and being in at the death of what appears to be a generic president and, presumably, the end of the conflict. If you can watch it on a streaming service you're already paying for (I wouldn't shell out anything additional for it), it's mildly interesting.
But it brings up a serious topic. We're fast approaching a presidential election. It's been hard-fought, and emotions are running high on both sides. The left, represented by Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, is beginning to panic, as Harris in particular turns in disastrous performance after disastrous performance, and her poll numbers continue to slide.
So, let's say Donald Trump and JD Vance win the election. What happens next? We all hope for a peaceful transition of power and seamless assumption of office by the winners of the election. But out of every election in my lifetime - and I'm in my 60s - this one seems least likely to have that outcome. As I see it, there are three possible scenarios.
Another Assassination Attempt - or Success
Donald Trump has, to date, been the subject of two assassination attempts. Both would-be assassins were amateurs, and yet, largely due to a major foul-up by the Secret Service, one of them actually accessed a vantage point with a rifle and, despite bystanders shouting about the guy on the roof, actually got a shot off at former President Trump. Thanks to a last-minute turn of the head, the bullet only clipped his ear. But there are reports that a certain nation-state, one known to be the world's leading state sponsor of Islamic terror, may attempt to assassinate Donald Trump - and they won't be sending amateurs.
See Related: Trump Speaks Out After Being Briefed on Iranian Assassination Plot
An attempt that fails would be deeply disturbing, as the first two were, but candidly, it wouldn't change the trajectory of events. A success, however, would put the country in an interesting constitutional position. If it happens, as we are positing here, after the election is certified, then presumably JD Vance would assume the status of president-elect. But what if it happens after the election but before the Electoral College meets? Presumably, the Trump electors would cast their votes for JD Vance - but there would be enormous pressure placed on them to do otherwise. It's doubtful that the left's challenges would come to anything; their best argument would be that Vance wasn't elected president but vice president, and honestly, that dog just won't hunt. The result of a successful assassin's bullet then will be President JD Vance.
Democrats Attempt to Block Certification
I'd expect this from some of the more unhinged Democrats in Congress. Oh, I know, J6, insurrection, all that hooraw from the left in 2021 - but remember, these are leftists, and these kinds of acts are only wrong in their eyes when Republicans do them. A lot of this will depend on the makeup of Congress as well, but at the moment, the GOP is expected to have a narrow Senate majority and may well hang on to the House. The new Congress will be sworn in on January 3rd, 2025, with the electoral votes to be counted on January 6th, 2025, so it will be this new Congress that will certify the election. If somehow we have Democratic majorities in both houses, I would expect a movement to prevent certification; but any such majority by either party is likely to be narrow, so I expect that attempt will fail.
See Related: Mark Halperin Tells Tucker Carlson How Bad TDS Will Get If Trump Wins
It is the last scenario that is truly disturbing.
Civil Unrest - or Civil War
If Donald Trump and JD Vance win, and that's looking more and more likely by the day, there will be civil unrest. The only real question is what form it will take. There are two likely scenarios: Civil unrest (likely) and civil war (unlikely but not impossible.)
See Related: The 95 Dangerous Days Left Til We're Rid of Joe Biden
On Election Day, as the results become apparent, we will likely see protests begin, especially in the major cities. It will start with protests, but it may well lead over succeeding days into riots, arson, and looting - think the 2020 Summer of Love riots, all over again, possibly larger. The left, of course, is quick to accuse the right of promoting violence, but it's funny how any real political violence in recent years always seems to be initiated by progressives. The unrest will slack off some a few days after Election Day, especially in the northern cities where the temps drop below freezing - but it will ramp back up after the election is certified and again after Trump's second inauguration. As far as an ending, that will depend on how far local authorities and state governors are willing to let this go - and whether President Trump will step in by, for instance, invoking the Insurrection Act.
The worst possibility, of course, is outright civil war. I think this is unlikely, but I would not go so far as to say it is impossible. It's hard to think of precisely what might set this off, but we know what form it would take; it wouldn't be a war of secession, like our first civil war. It would be a war of red vs. blue, largely rural vs. urban, and a quick look at a map of the United States broken out, politically, by county will tell you what that will look like.
Look at this map from a strategic sense. By and large, the left is concentrated in a few small geographic areas. For the most part, these areas are heavily urban and dependent on the outskirts – red country – for electricity, gasoline, food, and clothing, indeed most of the requirements of a modern lifestyle. It would not be difficult for a military force or even a well-organized militia to shut down imports into even a large city. Bear in mind also that much of the rank-and-file military will go to the right, and they will likely bring arms and equipment with them.
The blockage wouldn’t have to be leak-proof, but even preventing fifty percent of a major city’s food and energy imports would have that city melting down within a matter of days. Indeed, in any hypothetical second civil war in the United States, that’s the main advantage the right would have; penned into their cities, deprived of internet, electricity, and food, the big blue cities would very rapidly destroy themselves. All the right would have to do is wait.
There is a chance that this could result in some return of sanity in the United States, some vast political re-alignment. I'm skeptical about that.
The other option is that the result of this wouldn't be some amazing return to the United States as a beacon of liberty. Any such civil war will be fought among us. If there is outright fighting, it will be fought in the fields, the streets, on the highways, and in the neighborhoods of our country. It will be brutal and deadly, and it will be the end of the United States. Some folks on the right and the left seem to think it would be a rebirth; it won’t. It will be a death. The death of our nation and the death of a world of peace and order. It will engender hatred and antipathies that may well last for generations and is likely to result in an outright Balkanization of the United States.
For an interesting take on one historian's views, namely that the 2024 election is likely to result in an outright civil war, watch this:
For Republicans, right now, in the presidential race, things are looking better all the time. But every win comes with a price, and this win is liable to come with the after-effects of Trump Derangement Syndrome run amok. Be prepared. Things could get dicey.
