The first post-assassination attempt polling is out, in the form of a swing state poll by Emerson College's polling group. The results of that poll should have the Trump campaign, on this last day of the Republican National Convention, wearing broad grins. The Biden campaign, on the other hand...

New polling conducted July 15-16 by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Democrats for Next Generation finds former President Trump leading Biden in seven swing states and in a national poll.

In the July 15-16 national poll, 46% of registered voters support Trump, and 42% support Biden; 12% are undecided. There has been a two-point drop in Biden’s support since earlier this month, where 46% supported Trump, and 44% supported Biden. 

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said, “Recent polling shows Biden losing support more significantly than Trump gaining it since the attempted assassination. This raises questions about whether Biden’s decline is still influenced by the debate or if Trump has reached his support ceiling.”

Questions, indeed, but it's the swing state numbers — for which the polling includes the third-party candidates — that should have Democrats breaking out in flop-sweats. These battleground state polls show Trump pulling away.

When third-party candidates are added to the ballot test, Trump either maintains or extends his advantage in the national poll and 6 of 7 swing states. 

• Arizona: Trump 46%, Biden 36%, other candidates 8.2% 
• Georgia: Trump 44%, Biden 39%, other candidates 9.3%
• Michigan: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other candidates 8.3%
• Nevada: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other candidates 9.2%
• North Carolina: Trump 47%, Biden 38%, other candidates 8.7%
• Pennsylvania: Trump 46%, Biden 40%, other candidates 6.3%
• Wisconsin: Trump 46%, Biden 43%, other candidates 6.5%
• National: Trump 44%, Biden 38%, other candidates 8.4 %

There's always the possibility that some of this is due to sympathy support following the attempt on Donald Trump's life, but it's just as likely that the stark contrast presented in the last week — Trump bouncing to his feet, bloodied but uncowed, fist raised, shouting to the crowd to show them he was all right. Contrast that to the pale, confused, befuddled old Joe Biden, with a COVID diagnosis, rushing back once more to his Delaware home to hide away for a few more days — or weeks. People tend to support strong leaders; after the last week, there can be no denying Trump's strength or Biden's weakness.

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What's interesting is their results on whether each major candidate should withdraw from the race.

When asked if President Biden should withdraw from the race, 52% nationally think he should and 48% think he should not. Regarding whether former President Trump should withdraw, 56% think he should not and 44% think he should.

The obvious response is this: Why on earth should former President Trump withdraw from the race? Everything appears to be breaking his way. He shows every indication that he will be attaining his non-consecutive second term, and presumably, having learned a few things from his first, he will almost certainly make it a historic one. The Democrats will, of course, throw everything they can at the Trump/Vance ticket, including the kitchen sink, but even if Joe Biden withdraws, it's unlikely to make a lot of difference.

Barring some unforeseeable catastrophe, it looks like a Trump victory is increasingly likely. It's almost certainly to be "Trump 2, Electric Bugaloo." Whether Joe Biden stays in the race or not, at this point, is unlikely to break Trump's momentum.