Are Stock Markets Rallying in Anticipation of a Trump Victory?

Among all the other things the United States is - a bastion of freedom, a shining city on a hill, the last great hope of mankind - the United States of America is and always has been a country that does business. America is a merchant nation, and as the saying goes, "the business of America is business." And, in recent years, there has been on major national political party that is friendly towards business (Republicans) and one that is hostile to business (Democrats.)

The stock markets are very sensitive towards changes in the business environment, which is why it's interesting to see them rising now since former President Donald Trump has not only survived an assassination attempt while managing to look heroic, but he has also officially clinched the Republican presidential nomination and selected his running mate.

Are the markets indicating they favor a second Trump term? It would seem so.

Former President Trump officially won the GOP nomination with his vice presidential pick, Sen. JD Vance, in tow.
The Republican senator from Ohio, a former Marine, private equity alum and author of a bestseller-turned-Netflix special, received the nod on Monday, two days after the former president narrowly escaped an assassination attempt during a rally in Pennsylvania.
"Prior to this horrific event, the markets were already sniffing out, subsequent to the debate, a Trump victory. Now, investors are sniffing out a what? A 'red sweep,'" said Jason Katz, UBS managing director and senior portfolio manager, on "Varney & Co.," predicting what could unfold should the GOP ticket win the White House. "The tax laws of 2017 become permanent, maybe you get additional tax cuts. You will have much less erroneous regulations; we could see a very big pickup in M&A activity," he detailed.

I'm still a little skeptical about the notion of a "red sweep," given the GOP's occasional predilection for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, but the presidential election is looking awfully good for the Trump/Vance ticket. They should take nothing for granted, though, and need to fight to the finish as though they were 20 points behind in the polls.

But Tuesday's market rise is interesting. As of this writing, on Tuesday morning Alaska time, the Dow is up 550 points, and the S&P is up seven points, although, oddly, the NASDAQ is down 140 points - a tad less than a three percent drop.

Still, looking pretty decent. Is this a reaction to the events of the last few days and the increased prospect of a second Trump administration?

This Graph on the Economy May Be the Most Damaging for Biden for the 2024 Election

There's no way of knowing, of course; this would literally require peering into the minds of millions of people making millions of investment decisions on any given day, and correlation, we should remember, does not equal causation. But it's an interesting note that today, of all days, the day after the GOP's presidential team of Trump/Vance has been affirmed, the DOW takes off running.

The business of America is business. A second Trump term will be good for business. It will be good for the economy. It will be good for Americans' standard of living. It's good to see the markets would seem to be anticipating this.