The Trump Trial: Likely Outcomes and Inflection Points, in History and Now

Stormy Petrel, the dark harbinger. (Credit: Ward Clark via AI - Night Cafe Creator)

There have been seminal moments throughout history, moments after which everything has changed. There is, in fact, an entire genre of speculative fiction in which the writer takes one such point in history and gives it a deft twist; a popular one is the Confederacy winning the Civil War, or a world in which Islam never arises.

Or, a world in which the cream of the Roman Republic, along with four legions of Roman troops, finds itself transported to the New World in 49 B.C. — I know about this because I've dabbled in the genre myself; see the links in my bio below.

These kinds of inflection points have always happened and continue to happen. An election can be one such; I would argue that the 1980 election was one, and the 1860 election was. And so will be, likely, the 2024 election. No matter what happens in the election this November, the country will be changed, maybe for the better, maybe for the worse. Of the two possibilities, I won't rule out the former, but I'm afraid it will be the latter.

This brings me to the ongoing Manhattan trial of a former President of the United States, Donald John Trump. There are signs a-plenty that this whole thing may explode in Democrats' faces, even if President Trump is convicted.

See Related: Here Are the Jury Instructions in Trump's Manhattan Trial  

REPORT: Secret Service Meets With NY Jail Officials to Prepare for Possibility Trump Ends Up Behind Bars

There are (and forgive me while I belabor the obvious) three possible outcomes: An acquittal, a hung jury, or a conviction.

An acquittal will result in a historic meltdown on the part of the left. After that failure to get Trump and the effect that the failure is likely to have on the other cases against the former president, there will be many on the left who will be ready to do anything to stop Trump Vol. 2. To say there will be "protests" is likely the grossest understatement since Emperor Hirohito, in the summer of 1945, observed that the war in the Pacific had not developed "completely in Japan's favor."

A hung jury presents Alvin Bragg et al. with an interesting choice. Do they try to re-seat another jury in a second attempt? Or do they just give the whole thing up? In the former case, there's little chance a second trial could take place before the election. In the second, Bragg may well see a good portion of the left's wrath descend on him.

A conviction is a really interesting outcome because, as I've noted before, Donald Trump seems to be a master of the Obi-Wan technique: Every attempt to strike him down just makes him stronger. The Biden campaign will play the "convicted felon" card, of course, but I suspect it won't help them much; a political campaign has to have more than just "Hey, that other guy is bad," and the Biden administration has been a never-ending progression of abject failures. It's unlikely that Trump will face incarceration, and a conviction with a fine or some community service will release him back onto the campaign trail.

It's also important to note that even some leftists are starting to show some concern over all this.

See Related: Blind Squirrel Finds a Nut: MSNBC’s Brzezinski Questions Biden Campaign Event Outside Trump Trial

So, any of these three outcomes could be an inflection point of historic significance. Also, upcoming events may be — one or another of them almost certainly will be — just such an inflection point. The Democratic and Republican National Conventions are liable to be, coming as they do in the middle of the traditional summer loot-burn-throw-rocks-at-cops "mostly peaceful protest" season. The election, though, that's going to be the big one.

If former President Trump wins a second term — and as of this writing, it sure looks like he will — then, well, it's going to be Katie-bar-the-door. Unless Trump wins in a 1984-style landslide, with even the deep-blue jurisdictions going enthusiastically for Trump, and I think that is unlikely, our major cities are almost certainly going to explode.

Remember how recently college campuses erupted to advocate for the murdering, raping terrorists of Hamas? Remember four years ago when the urban areas melted down over the death of a career criminal? This could be small potatoes next to the prospect of a second Trump term. 

Meanwhile, we have allowed into the country millions of unknowns, many of them young, military-aged men, and if one percent of them are bad actors, then there are still thousands of possible terrorists in the nation waiting for just such a destabilizing event.

The nation is, at this moment, a witch's brew, bubbling and boiling, threatening to overflow its cauldron. And it's coming, this year. The history of the United States, and the world, are liable to be forever changed.

This seems appropriate.


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