Now hold up before you throw something at me for the headline. Let’s take a leisurely stroll and do some analysis of this.
I’m not saying that Donald Trump is in danger of losing Texas. If he were there would be a five-alarm fire going on within the Trump and campaign and the national GOP. No candidate for President on the GOP side can win the White House without winning Texas. The electoral numbers do not make it possible.
Donald Trump in 2016 won 304 electoral votes and if you subtract Texas and it’s 38, you have 266 which is 4 short of 270 needed.
So Trump is not currently in danger of losing Texas but there is a reason why Mike Bloomberg campaigned there earlier last month and is spending a ton of money in that market. Mini Mike and the other Democrats are trying to make it competitive so if you have to spend money in a “safe state” you don’t have as much to spend in battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
So what is the deal…
From the Inquisitor…
A new poll appears to indicate trouble for Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. In the Republican stronghold of Texas, where no Democrat has won the state’s 38 electoral votes since 1976, the poll shows Trump falling to win more than 50 percent support in one-on-one matchups with any of the current top six Democratic contenders. In fact, the University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll shows that only 40 percent of Texans say that they “definitely” plan to vote for Trump in November.
Forty-seven percent of Texans told the pollster that they will “definitely not” vote to re-elect Trump, in the poll released on February 14, in what could be an indicator of flagging Republican support for the president.
Perhaps more significantly, in the head-to-head matchups against specific Democrats, Trump led in each matchup, but his margins were generally unconvincing and he was able to draw no greater than 47 percent against any of the top six contenders from the other party. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders came closest to defeating Trump in Texas, trailing by only two percentage points, 47-45, according to the poll.
That the President in this poll has not hit 50% support is not odd being there are still so many people running for the Democrats nomination that you have to wait until the nominee is picked and poll again.
Now in the individual matchups, Trump is leading although with Sanders he is within the margin of error. There would have to be a massive collapse from 2016 for a socialist like Sanders to take over Texas where the President beat Hillary in 2016 by 9 points.
So once again, the worry should be if the 9 points Trump beat Hillary by in the last election begins to shrink and they have to spend money in the Lone Star State. If you recall MI, WI, and PA all went to Trump by ONLY 77,000 votes combined 4 years ago. The Democrats forgot that WI even existed and they won’t be doing that again being their convention is in Milwaukee this summer. I live in Michigan and while the economy is humming along there is absolutely no guarantee that this state will go GOP two times in a row for the first time since 84-88.
If you want President Donald Trump to remain as the 45th president than you need to make sure to go out and vote and talk to your family and friends to do the same. If you don’t believe me just watch any of the President’s rallies where he tells you the exact same thing that he needs you to go out and make sure to vote.
Don’t just assume that any state or election is a sure thing.
Hillary thought the same thing in 2016.