Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) has declared James Talarico the winner in Tuesday's Democrat Senate primary in Texas, with Talarico having garnered 53.1 percent of the vote at the time of publication. Jasmine Crockett clocked in with 45.6 percent, thus avoiding a runoff. To win outright, a candidate must receive 50 percent plus one vote.
Decision Desk HQ projects James Talarico wins the Texas US Senate Democratic Primary#DecisionMade: 2:13 AM EST
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) March 4, 2026
Follow live results here: https://t.co/YCdIu8onXO pic.twitter.com/ZLbUOBmx8b
Jasmine Crockett currently represents Texas' 30th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. She threw her hat into the ring in the Senate race once it became clear that she would be redistricted out of her House seat; her entrance into the Democrat primary forced out ex-congressman Colin Allred, who failed to beat Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in a head-to-head matchup back in 2024.
ALSO SEE: Bitter Jasmine Crockett Blames 'Cheating' After Vote Counts in Texas Senate Race Don't Go Her Way
James Talarico is a sitting state representative, self-described "aspiring preacher," and, as it turns out, a one-man fundraising juggernaut. His most recent filing for the final quarter of 2025 showed he hauled in $7 million for a total of $13 million raised since announcing his candidacy.
Going into Tuesday's primary, polls showed the Crockett-Talarico faceoff tightening after swinging wildly between the two. A January poll by Emerson College showed Talarico with a nearly double-digit lead, but a recent University of Texas one had Crockett up by 12 percent.
DDHQ showed things settling down to a 48.5 percent to 45.6 percent Talarico/Crockett split. Prediction markets were going crazy for Talarico on Tuesday, with Kalshi giving him an over-90 percent chance of defeating Crockett.
Talarico will now go on to face the winner of the Republican primary — John Cornyn and Ken Paxton are headed to a runoff — in the general election this November.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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