Venezuelan autocrat Nicolas Maduro is feeling the heat. As the U.S. pours military assets into the Caribbean, Maduro is begging his patrons in Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran for assistance.
Amid a buildup of American forces in the Caribbean, Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro is reaching out to Russia, China and Iran to enhance its worn military capabilities and solicit assistance, requesting defensive radars, aircraft repairs and potentially missiles, according to internal U.S. government documents obtained by The Washington Post
The U.S. has amassed a substantial military presence in the Caribbean. The final piece of that group, the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group, will arrive on station no later than the first half of next week; see US Carrier Strike Group Ordered to Caribbean Immediately; Is Armed Conflict Inevitable? – RedState. As I noted in that post, the concentration of forces brings its own logic. Once the force reaches a certain size, and I contend that it has done so, it will be used, because failing to use it would look like a weak bluff and a shameful climbdown; see Multiple Reports of Trump Authorizing Airstrikes in Venezuela Lead to Confusion – RedState.
In the past, Russia has been very public about its support of Hugo Chavez and, now, Maduro. This time, they are being more reticent. The current humiliating conflict in Ukraine has left Russia with barely enough equipment for itself. There has also been a distinct lack of diplomatic efforts. Russia has not brought up the situation in Venezuela with President Trump, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry "Pornstache" Peskov. "This issue has not been discussed at all, and it was not on the agenda." Perhaps unhelpfully, if my contention about the larger meaning of the pressure campaign against Venezuela is correct (see Trump's Campaign Against Venezuela Is Jumpstarting the Monroe Doctrine – RedState), Venezuela and Russia have renewed their "strategic partnership" which, allegedly, "strengthens bilateral cooperation in political and economic spheres, including energy, mineral extraction, transport, and communications, as well as in security, counterterrorism, and counter-extremism." I can see where Maduro thinks this might be his get-out-of-jail-free card, but I can also see it as waving a red cape in front of a bull.
Russian social media accounts claim that the remnants of Wagner Group PMC have been deployed to Venezuela. This is supposed to show support...I guess...but it is more a provocation than a deterrent.
🚨BREAKING NEWS
— Aleksey Berezutski 🇷🇺🎖 (@aleksbrz11) October 27, 2025
PMC Wagner group deployed to Venezuela.🇷🇺🇻🇪 pic.twitter.com/0kVqRfxoao
The last time U.S. forces confronted Wagner Group, it didn't turn out all that well.
BACKGROUND:
Three Hundred Dead and Wounded Russians Are a Reminder of US Airpower in Syria – RedState
How the U.S. Firepower Turned Russia's "Gray Zone" Attack Blood Red – RedState
Russian aircraft associated with gun running and other illegal enterprises have flown to Caracas, Venezuela, recently.
Russia remains the primary lifeline for Maduro. On Sunday, an Ilyushin Il-76 — one of the Russian aircraft sanctioned in 2023 by the United States for participating in the arms trade and transporting mercenaries — arrived in Caracas, Venezuela’s capital, after a circuitous route over Africa to avoid Western airspace, according to Flightradar24. The Kremlin declined to comment on the letter, but on Friday evening, the Foreign Ministry said Moscow supports Venezuela “in defending its national sovereignty” and stands “ready to respond appropriately to the requests of our partners in light of emerging threats.”
russia may be sending mercenaries and weapons to Venezuela, which is on the verge of war with the US – yesterday, a russian Il-76 transport plane landed in Caracas.
— Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 (@jurgen_nauditt) October 27, 2025
What is known about the aircraft:
— Departure was on October 22 from Moscow;
— There were stopovers in Yerevan,… pic.twitter.com/bwHTmkSFND
🚨 BREAKING: RUSSIA'S GIANT CARGO LANDS IN VENEZUELA 🇻🇪🇷🇺
— World War 3 (@Worldwar_3_) October 31, 2025
A massive Russian Antonov An-124 cargo aircraft has landed in Caracas under heavy security, sparking speculation that advanced S-400 air defense systems or new missile components may be onboard. pic.twitter.com/xiS3C9VK6x
russia may be sending mercenaries and weapons to Venezuela, which is on the verge of war with the US – yesterday, a russian Il-76 transport plane landed in Caracas.
What is known about the aircraft:
— Departure was on October 22 from Moscow;
— There were stopovers in Yerevan, Algiers, Rabat, Dakar, and Nouakchott;
— This airline is already under sanctions for transporting cargo on behalf of Wagner, transporting weapons and ammunition to Venezuela and Africa.
What these Kremlin actions mean:
— Either the delivery of any type of weapons from russia and Africa to Venezuela
— Or the use of mercenaries affiliated with the former Wagner.
Should the Americans nevertheless launch a ground invasion of Venezuela, and the russian supply involved human resources, the US will encounter Wagner fighters with combat experience in Africa, Syria, and Ukraine, and with FPV drones.
An Il-76 can carry up to 50 tons, enough for small arms shipments or 100–200 personnel, but not a full battery like the S-400 (which would require multiple flights).
Of course, putin could also send a few thousand russian babushkas to Venezuela; we don't know.
Maduro is also reaching out to China and Iran for aid.
Maduro, according to the documents, also composed a letter to Chinese President Xi Jinping seeking “expanded military cooperation” between their two countries to counter “the escalation between the U.S. and Venezuela.”
In the letter, Maduro asked the Chinese government to expedite Chinese companies’ production of radar detection systems, presumably so Venezuela could enhance its capabilities.
The documents say Transport Minister Ramón Celestino Velásquez also recently coordinated a shipment of military equipment and drones from Iran while planning a visit to that country. He told an Iranian official that Venezuela was in need of “passive detection equipment,” “GPS scramblers” and “almost certainly drones with 1,000 km [600 mile] range,” the documents state.
“In the missive, Maduro emphasized the seriousness of perceived U.S. aggression in the Caribbean, framing U.S. military action against Venezuela as action against China due to their shared ideology,” the U.S. documents state.
Chinese aid is unlikely, but it would not be shocking for U.S. forces to encounter Shahed attack drones like those used by Russia.
My view is that Maduro may have overestimated the risk Russia is willing to incur to come to his aid. Relations between the U.S. and Russia are tense, despite the happy talk President Trump uses, and a false step by Putin, like more than token support to Maduro, could result in the U.S. providing much more aid to Ukraine than it is. In the past, Russia has sent transports and combat vessels to the region to tweak the U.S. (see A Russian Submarine and Frigate Visit Havana - Now Let the Panic Begin – RedState), this time: crickets. An Il-76 showing up in Caracas makes a great photo op, but it can't carry meaningful amounts of equipment.
Russia is in a position where it must show some support; otherwise, it would be seen as cravenly abandoning a "strategic partnership." But too much support is going to be very painful as well as ineffectual.
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