President Trump will be working on a very tight schedule when he enters office in January. Pushing through his very ambitious agenda requires House and Senate leadership, who are fully on board with his promises to cut wasteful spending and reduce taxes on the working class. The Republican majority in the House will be razor-thin, and historically, the party in power loses seats in the House in mid-term elections. Trump has to assume that he will have a Democrat House in 2027; that might not come to pass, but he'd be a fool not to work from that assumption.

If Mike Johnson is reelected Speaker, Trump will have a willing and energetic ally, assuming the social media addicts in the GOP caucus — and we can all name at least two or three of them — can take time from getting clicks on X, formerly Twitter, to work with Johnson and the Trump administration. 

The Senate is a different proposition. It is potentially the rock that sinks the Good Ship Trump.

Mitch McConnell finally bowed out of his position as Majority or Minority Leader for Senate Republicans, and the election to replace him will be on Wednesday. Tuesday, Utah Senator Mike Lee will host a forum for the three leading contenders: John Cornyn (Texas), Rick Scott (Florida), and John Thune (South Dakota). Two of the contenders, Cornyn and Thune, have been members of McConnell's leadership team.

John Thune is the GOP Whip. He has a checkered history with Trump (lots of juicy stuff in here 'Inexcusable' to endorsable: Thune's journey with Trump • South Dakota Searchlight) but ended up endorsing him. John Cornyn is a close McConnell ally and former GOP Whip. Cornyn supported the appointment of Robert Mueller as Special Counsel in Trump's first term and is seen by many as at least giving a soft push to the Russia Hoax. I'm told by people who have worked with and around him that he has his own skeletons lurking.

Both men support the January 6 prosecutions, and the first potential breakpoint will come early in Trump's term if, as expected, he pardons most, if not all, of those caught up in Merrick Garland's purge of jaywalkers and trespassers.

Senator John Thune, who is next in line for Senate Majority Leader, believes that the J6 prosecutions were legitimate and he wanted everyone put into prison. pic.twitter.com/l0EcrhkW9u

— Cernovich (@Cernovich) November 8, 2024

I think the best that comes out of the election of Cornyn or Thune is a McConnell 2.0 that is more interested in arrogating power than moving a conservative agenda forward.

Obviously, neither Thune nor Cornyn want the boat rocked. In an interview Thursday on CNBC's "Squawk Box" program, Thune acknowledged that Trump could have a major impact on the election but said, “It’s probably in his best interest to stay out of that.”

John Thune is now telling Trump to stay out of the Senate Majority Leader race: “It’s probably in his best interest to stay out of that.” pic.twitter.com/QaQneslCWu

— TheBlaze (@theblaze) November 7, 2024

I take that as a thinly veiled threat that he will obstruct Trump's agenda if Trump openly intervenes in the election.

There is one announced challenger: Florida's Rick Scott. Scott is much more a Trump ally than Cornyn and Thune, and much more likely to focus the Senate majority on achieving Trump's goals.

We have been given a mandate by the American people to support President Trump’s agenda and Make Washington WORK again.

I’m running to be the next Senate Majority leader to do just that.#LetsGetToWork pic.twitter.com/qwe9Oj4Cid

— Rick Scott (@SenRickScott) November 6, 2024

I don't consider Scott to have been a highly successful governor, YMMV, but being a governor is a very different job from leading the Senate. Loyalty, however, is a commodity in short supply in Washington, and so that counts for a lot.

A small boomlet is forming to promote Rand Paul's candidacy. I don't see this taking off, and I'm not terribly sure it exists outside social media. I'm not a Rand Paul fan, and he reminds me of that story about the infantry lieutenant whose men only followed him out of curiosity.

My fear is that a win by Cornyn or Thune will kill any chance for some of the systemic change we need in governance, like, for instance, getting away from omnibus appropriation bills and mindlessly increasing agency budgets if we are to survive. I don't see either of them getting on board with immigration reform or onshoring American manufacturing capacity. 

Trump may only have two years to deliver on his promises, and a Senate majority leader who hasn't bought into Trump's goals will stop this great opportunity dead in its tracks.