These are days of panic for Democrat politicians and their hired guns. In states where they had expected to romp to victory, they are now playing defense and playing it poorly (Stunner for Democrats Drops in New Hampshire and Scrambles the Election Map, Could New Hampshire Bring Republicans to 54 Senate Seats? and Flop Sweat and Panic Grips New York Democrats as New Poll Puts Lee Zeldin in the Lead). The generic ballot signals doom if the historical record holds true; see The Bell Tolls as Final Data Ruthlessly Crushes Democrat Hopes and Dreams. Tame state supreme courts are actually requiring that the letter of the law be followed (Election-Shaking Defeat for Democrats in Pennsylvania Over Mail-In Ballots). Nowhere has this impending disaster been more clear than in Florida.
Both Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio are facing politically out-of-touch and inept opponents.
Florida Gov. contender, Charlie Crist announced at a town hall meeting yesterday that he would be open to implementing statewide masks and mandates for residents due to an uptick in cases of "a new variant," Daily Real-Time News reported. pic.twitter.com/S23YZ9qou3
— Apex World News (@apexworldnews) November 1, 2022
As a result, recent polling shows DeSantis and Rubio banking double-digit leads in their races. DeSantis is on track to win the Miami-Dade Democrat stronghold — at least before the results are announced by the Democrat stormtroopers who run the election process there (I’ve probably popped on the CISA watch list for that comment because our government can’t have mere citizens criticizing elections officials; see Leaked Documents Show DHS, the FBI, and Social Media Platforms Worked Together to Stop Debate on COVID, Hunter’s Laptop, and Election Integrity).
In the months leading up to the 2022 midterm election, Republicans kicked ass on voter registration efforts. In an article by the extreme anti-DeSantis, Florida Sun-Sentinel headlined Florida Republicans register 9 new voters for every 1 new Democrat in months leading to midterms, the scope of the problem is made clear.
The topline numbers: Florida has 5.28 million registered Republicans for the Nov. 8 election — an increase of more than 86,376 from the number of Republicans registered to vote in the August primary.
The state has 4.97 million Democrats — just 9,380 more than the number who were registered to vote in August.
That works out to more than nine new Republican registrants for every one new Democratic registered voter.
The state now has 14.5 million registered voters, up 21.5% from 11.9 million for the 2012 election. Both parties have increased their numbers over the decade, but the Republicans have increased much faster.
Last year, for the first time in modern Florida history, the number of registered Republicans surpassed the number of registered Democrats.
Florida’s 5.28 million currently registered Republicans is a 24.3% increase from the 4.25 million in 2012.
Florida’s 4.97 million Democrats is 3.96% higher than the 4.78 million in 2012.
Ten years ago, the last time Democrats won a big statewide race, then-President Barack Obama defeated Republican Mitt Romney by 74,309 votes out of more than 8 million cast. Then-U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., also won that year, by a larger margin of 1.1 million votes.
At the time, the Democrats had a 535,987-voter advantage in statewide registration. It now stands at a 305,950 advantage for Republicans.
Even Politico, whose business model is largely dependent upon spinning every conceivable event as a win for the Democrats, sees doom.
“I think Ron DeSantis will win Miami-Dade County,” said Evan Ross, a longtime South Florida-based Democratic consultant. “Democratic voters are not at all excited or motivated by Charlie’s campaign. Right now, I think it will be close, but I think DeSantis beats Crist here.”
Ross recently conducted polling in Miami-Dade County that found roughly 15 percent of Democrats saying they would not vote for Crist, while 5 percent of Republicans said they wouldn’t vote for DeSantis. In the county, DeSantis’ approval rating with Republicans is plus-89 percent, while Crist’s approval rating is just plus-49 with Democrats. Democrats still lead Republicans in overall voter registration numbers in Miami-Dade, more than 575,000 to 435,000-plus, though that gap is decreasing.
“The only thing that might give Charlie Crist a chance of becoming governor would be DeSantis aggressively campaigning for him over the next two weeks,” Ross said. “Translation: It’s over. And it’s going to be ugly.”
It’s not the only bad sign for Democrats in Miami-Dade County, where nearly 60 percent of voters are Hispanic.
An internal poll released earlier this month by Democrat Annette Taddeo had her beating her Republican opponent, Rep. María Elvira Salazar, by just 1 point in Miami-Dade County’s 27th Congressional District — but with DeSantis up on Crist by 6 points in that district. DeSantis lost the district in 2018 by nearly 8 points.
Going back to the Sun-Sentinel article, this is what the reporter has to say about early and mail-in/absentee voting in Florida.
And it’s not just the decisions by major Democratic donors and left-of-center interest groups to spend their money in states where they see a better chance of winning than Florida.
Republicans are ahead of Democrats in the number of mail ballots and in-person early votes cast, as of Friday morning. The two parties were evenly split 24 hours earlier; five days before, Democrats were ahead.
Any chance for Democratic victories in the big 2022 Florida races requires them to go into Nov. 8 with more ballots cast than Republicans, who consistently have better Election Day turnout.
At this point in the 2020 election, where President Trump carried Florida by four points, Democrats had a 387,000 vote lead in early and mail voting.
This is how it looks today.
Florida Election News
As of today, here’s how many people have voted:
🔴781,127 (Vote By Mail)
🔴644,890 (In-Person Early Voting)
🔴1,426,017 (VBM + IPEV)
🔵1,249,122 (VBM + IPEV)
Republicans lead with 176,895 more votes than the democrats.
— #ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) November 2, 2022
🚨#BREAKING: In a historic move, Republicans have taken the lead in Miami-Dade County early + mail-in voting over Democrats
🔴 118,889 Republicans
🔵 118,878 Democrats
⚪️ 66,757 Independents
— Florida’s Voice (@FLVoiceNews) November 2, 2022
It is a safe bet that DeSantis and Rubio cruise to re-election. The only real question left to be answered is the extent of the blood-letting in the Congressional races.