Flop Sweat and Panic Grips New York Democrats as New Poll Puts Lee Zeldin in the Lead

AP Photo/Eduardo Munoz Alvarez

A new Trafalgar Poll gives New York Republican gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin a slim lead over Democrat incumbent Kathy Hochul. In this poll, rated A- by the left-leaning fivethirtyeight.com, shows Zeldin leading 48.4% to 47.6%. While this number is well within the margin of error, two months ago, Hochul was leading by five points, and a month ago, she was ahead by two points (READ GOP’s Zeldin Nipping at Hochul’s Heels in New York Governor’s Race and Stunning New Poll in NY Governor’s Race Shows Great News for Zeldin). The trend line in this poll mirrors the RCP average (yes, it is an apples+watermelons=tomatoes methodology, but some are wedded to it) that shows Hochul losing nine points of her previously substantial lead over Zeldin in 30 days.


The New York Post reports that Zeldin’s emphasis on safe streets and a strong economy are catching on even in New York City (Why NYC Democrats are supporting Republican Lee Zeldin for governor). His support of a mugged bodega worker, Jose Alba, who was arrested for defending himself (NYC Judge Lowers Bond for 62-Year-Old Bodega Clerk Falsely Charged With Murder for Defending Himself, NY DA Bragg Charged Victim in Bodega Attack, but Won’t Charge Woman Who Stabbed Him 3 Times, and Woke NY DA Bragg Finally Drops Murder Charges Against Bodega Worker Who Defended Himself) has resulted in bodega owners raising over $70,000 for his campaign.

The panic in Albany is not a unique event. Across New York, a previously comfy and lethargic Democrat party is bracing itself for a tectonic shift (Democrats rush aid to deep-blue seat in Upstate New York).

House Democrats’ top super PAC is making a last-minute buy to aid Rep. Joe Morelle, a New York Democrat in a deep-blue seat — the latest sign that the battle for the House is lurching toward the GOP.

Morelle, who was elected in 2018 to replace the late Democratic Rep. Louise Slaughter, holds a Rochester-area district that backed President Joe Biden by 20 points in 2020. His Republican opponent, La’Ron Singletary, is a former Rochester police chief who has staked his campaign on rising crime rates in New York. House Majority PAC will go on air this week for Morelle with a $275,000 buy, according to data from the media tracking firm AdImpact.


The Washington Post reports that the Congressional seat held by Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Sean Patrick Maloney is in danger.

Democratic strategists in the state say as many as four Democratic-held seats could slip away — including one held by the DCCC’s chairman, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney. Republicans need to net just five House seats to take back the majority.

Republicans have spent about $5 million pummeling Maloney in his district, according to data from AdImpact, pouring in a significant investment. Earlier in the summer, top Democrats privately waved off concerns about their campaign chief losing his own election, but that confidence has waned.

The DCCC recently spent about $600,000 in an effort to save his seat — a sign that Democrats are taking the threats seriously.

The sure pick-up the Democrats saw in NY-22 (Clinton +4; Biden +9), held by the retiring RINO John Katko, may be slipping out of reach (N.Y. Democrats in Tough Fight to Capture an Open G.O.P. House Seat).

Two weeks ago, fascist New York Attorney General Letitia James was down by one point to challenger Michael Henry in a race that everyone thought would be another cakewalk to Kiev.

None of this is where a party wants to be a week before election day and mere months before the results are announced (chill, MMfA goobers, it’s a joke…sorta).

What I write next, I am fully aware that it may be waved at me next Wednesday to prove that I don’t know anything. What the polls are not measuring is the intensity of an electorate that was betrayed and abused by Andrew Cuomo’s leadership during the COVID “pandemic.” They aren’t measuring the anger of an electorate that has seen the government that is supposed to protect it coddle criminals and criminalize anyone who resists street thugs.


Right now, all the momentum in New York is flowing away from the Democrats.



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