On Tuesday, there was something of a defenestration of the Russian diplomatic corps (by that, I mean GRU and SVR officers) stationed in embassies in Europe. In short order, Denmark expelled 15 Russian spies, Italy 30, Sweden 3, Spain 25, Latvia 13, and Estonia 14. In addition, Latvia and Estonia shuttered Russian consulates in those countries. On Monday, Lithuania withdrew its ambassador from Moscow and expelled the Russian ambassador. Earlier in the month, there was another spate of expulsions involving Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and the Baltic States (Poland Expels 45 Russian Spies Posing as Diplomats as Fears of Attacks on Ukraine Supply Route Looms).

France: "we froze Russian assets and expelled 30 diplomats"

Germany: "we froze Russian assets and expelled 50 diplomats"

Ireland: "oh… Ehm… There might have been a little communication problem.. we expelled their assets and frozen their diplomats… ops…" https://t.co/6s4Uwa7aIT

— Putin is a Virus (@PutinIsAVirus) April 5, 2022

Since Putin unleashed the Russian Army to carry out his final solution to the Ukraine problem (Kremlin Newspaper and a Putin Confidant Endorse Genocide as Russia’s Final Solution to the Ukraine Problem), 309 Russian spies operating under diplomatic cover have been sent packing; 149 of those since the war crimes in Bucha have come to light (see The Ukrainian Army Liberates Territory From Russian Invaders and Discovers Murdered Civilians; Shocking Evidence of Mass-Scale Russian War Crimes Raises the Stakes in Ukraine, and Russian Torture Chamber Discovered in Liberated Ukraine Town as the Russian Army Continues to Do What It Is Good at Doing).

The damage done by these expulsions is extensive.

The expulsion of GRU and SVR thugs will confront the Russians with a challenging problem. Do they abandon or let go dormant the networks these people were running? Or do you turn them over to another spy who wasn’t expelled? On the one hand, you will probably lose an intelligence network or an agent. On the other hand, you will probably blow the cover of another operative of which the host country wasn’t aware. The expelled diplomats are permanently labeled as intelligence operatives, and they will find it difficult to get a posting in another embassy.

Some number of the expelled Russians have legitimate diplomatic roles. These expulsions will limit the quantity and quality of information that Moscow has to operate with. This, of course, is a double-edged sword. There is a lot to be said for letting the other guy know what the red lines are so they don’t blunder across them.

A longer-term issue this signals is the lack of social contact with the host country available to the Russian embassy staff. In the case of the Baltic States, consulates servicing the local Russian community have been shut down. It is arguable that they will be reopened. The absence of social contact reduces the ability of Russia to tell its story to social elites.

Russia, of course, vows it will retaliate. So far, they have expelled four diplomats from the Baltic States. Russian ex-president and deputy head of security council Dmitry Medvedev took some time out of his full-time occupation of normalizing genocide (see Kremlin Newspaper and a Putin Confidant Endorse Genocide as Russia’s Final Solution to the Ukraine Problem) to make threats.

“Everyone knows the answer: it will be symmetrical and destructive for bilateral relations,” Medvedev said in a posting on his Telegram channel.

…

“If this continues, it will be fitting, as I wrote back on 26th February – to slam shut the door on Western embassies,” Medvedev said. “It will be cheaper for everyone. And then we will end up just looking at each other in no other way than through gunsights.”

Fine. Whatever, dude.

Shutting down European embassies means that Russia’s will also be shut down. I’m not sure how he rates that as “retaliation.”

The biggest thing this apparently coordinated jettisoning of spies by European embassies is the solidarity it is showing. I think Putin’s attack on Ukraine will not only be the source of immediate pain as his army is ground down. It will be the source of long-term pain as everyone has had a glimpse of the monstrous nature of Putin’s regime and is rejecting it.