On Sunday, the Russian Defense Ministry issued an ultimatum to the Ukrainian garrison defending Mariupol.

“Lay down your arms,” Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev, the director of the Russian National Center for Defense Management, said in a briefing distributed by the defence ministry.

“A terrible humanitarian catastrophe has developed,” Mizintsev said. “All who lay down their arms are guaranteed safe passage out of Mariupol.”

The deadline is 5 a.m. Monday, Moscow time, or 10 p.m. Sunday Eastern Daylight Time.

With about two hours remaining to the deadline, the defenders of Mariupol rejected the demand. This sets the stage for the largest siege of a city since World War II.

⚡️Ukraine rejects Russia's demand to surrender Mariupol.

Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk responded to Russia by stating that surrender is not an option. The letter from Russia’s Defense Ministry said it would only establish a humanitarian corridor if Mariupol surrenders.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 20, 2022

Mariupol has been surrounded since at least March 2.

Thread on the current status of the war. There are 4 areas/cities to watch over the next 1-2 weeks:
-Mikolaiv
-Mariupol
-Joint Forces Operation area
-Kyiv
Russian forces are having some successes pushing against JFO but less against Kyiv and Mikolaiv.
(map from @TheStudyofWar) pic.twitter.com/WPCD0Tls3S

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 18, 2022

The defense of Mariupol has seen Russia revert to type. Despite a few hundred thousand civilians being in the city, the Russians have relied upon indiscriminate bombing and shelling, including the “evacuation routes” ostensibly guaranteed by the Russians to be safe to civilians leaving the city.

Nothing says more about the crass brutality of Putin's war in Ukraine than this satellite image of the bombed remains of Mariupol Drama Theatre. Shelter for victims of his war, "CHILDREN" written outside so clearly that it's visible from space, and still it was bombed. pic.twitter.com/c20fwa2guH

— Eliot Higgins (@EliotHiggins) March 19, 2022

The view from #Mariupol today. Numerous structures – including many residential homes – continue to burn.

pic.twitter.com/isamBOHGYA

— The Intel Crab 🇺🇦 (@IntelCrab) March 20, 2022

AP images of a pregnant woman being rushed to an ambulance after Russia bombed a maternity hospital in Mariupol where she was meant to give birth shocked the world. @AP has learned that the woman and her baby have died.https://t.co/yZPZwgbLz8

— The Associated Press (@AP) March 14, 2022

Over the past week, a more ominous turn of events has occurred. Russian soldiers, presumably part of Rosgvardiya, or the National Guard of Russia (see Top General in Putin’s Personal Army Is Arrested by FSB for details on the National Guard) have been rounding up citizens in Mariupol and deporting them to Russia,

“Over the past week, several thousand Mariupol residents have been taken to Russian territory,” the city said in a statement. “The occupiers illegally took people from the Livoberezhny district and from the shelter in the sports club building, where more than a thousand people (mostly women and children) were hiding from the constant bombing.”

Captured Mariupol residents were taken to camps where Russian forces checked their phones and documents, then redirected some of the residents to remote cities in Russia, the statement said, adding that the “fate of the others is unknown.”

“What the occupiers are doing today is familiar to the older generation, who saw the horrific events of World War II, when the Nazis forcibly captured people,” Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boichenko said in the statement. “It is hard to imagine that in the 21st century people can be forcibly taken to another country.”

Given the past behavior of the Russian Army and the statements made by its leadership, there is no incentive for anyone to trust the Russians’ guarantee of safe passage. At best, the defenders can hope to end up in some gulag above the Arctic Circle; at worst, they will be executed after a summary court-martial.

Russia has given Ukraine until 5am to surrender Mariupol, after which it says it'll let the 130,000 remaining civilians leave.

The language it uses for Kyiv's forces – "nationalists," "foreign mercenaries," "bandits" – leaves little doubt about what Russia has in store for them.

— max seddon (@maxseddon) March 20, 2022

A chilling new threat. Russia's Defense Ministry says Ukraine has until 5am on March 21 to surrender the besieged city of Mariupol, adding it'll let residents and troops who lay down arms leave. Anyone left behind "with the bandits" will "face a military tribunal." via RIA

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 20, 2022

“After a complete cleansing of Mariupol” https://t.co/qdDC9nValH

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 21, 2022

This seems to bring us to this part of the battle for the Alamo.

The key question is if the Russian Army can make the threat stick. Trying to bluster defenders into surrender with death threats isn’t generally a smart way to go. There is nothing yet in the war in Ukraine that indicates that the Russians have the skill, motivation, or ability to deliver on the threat. When they fail through conventional means, I think we can expect to see the Russians to escalate to chemical weapons for the terror effect and because they have taken the measure of the mewling old wretch in the White House.