Gallup has a new poll out that indicates that despite everything the Democrats have thrown at President Trump–emoluments clause, grab them by the [humma-humma], Stormy Daniels, Michael Avenatti, the Russia Hoax, anonymous books, anonymous sources, James Comey, James Clapper, John Brennan, Andy McCabe, the Russia Hoax, radicalized federal judges, a hostile bureaucracy, a bullsh** impeachment scam, tantrums by Max-Boot-Jennifer-Rubin-Rick-Wilson, NeverTrumpers, etc.–he is going into the 2020 campaign in an incredibly strong position.
I like using Gallup as a yardstick, not because I am an authority on polling methodology but because they have asked the same questions in the same way for decades and that lets you do a quick apples-to-apples comparison of the numbers.
Let’s get right to the numbers.
Presidential approval rating
This is sort of the gold standard of all presidential ratings though with Trump I think it is misleading. We’ve never really had a president whose persona was such a huge part of how people get their opinions of him. If you ask me if I approve of Trump, I’d probably say no. But if asked about how he’s governed, it would be an enthusiastic “yes.” Gallup asks specifically about approval of the way that Trump is handling his role as president.
Right now, Trump is at an all time high of 49% approval. This is up 12 points since last January and up 5 points since the impeachment nonsense started and up 10 since Eric Ciaramella’s whistleblower complaint became public knowledge. In fact, this is 4 points higher than Barack Obama at the same point in his tenure in the White House.
CREDIT: Gallup Approval Center
Here are some details
Gallup notes that there has never been a greater difference between approval rating by party than the 87 point gap here.
Sixty-three percent approve of the handling of the economy and 40% are satisfied with the way things are going in the country, that is the highest rating since 2001.
Party approval rating
While all of that bodes well for Trump’s reelection, what does that mean for the GOP in November?
According to Gallup, this might smell like doom for the Democrats:
As Trump’s job approval rating has improved, so has the image of the Republican Party. Now, 51% of Americans view the Republican Party favorably, up from 43% in September. It is the first time GOP favorability has exceeded 50% since 2005.
Meanwhile, 45% of Americans have a positive opinion of the Democratic Party, a slight dip from 48% in September.
Additionally, the poll finds 48% of Americans identifying as Republicans or leaning toward that party, compared with 44% Democratic identification or leaning. Recent Gallup polls had shown a fairly even partisan distribution, after the Democratic Party held advantages for much of 2019.
The partisan approval right now is 51/45 favorable/unfavorable for the GOP. If we look at this question in September 2018 it was 45/52. In 2014, when we retook the Senate, it was 42/52. In the wave election of 2010, it was 45/50. In 2006, when Bush lost the House, it was 35/58.
Compare and contrast with the Democrats. Right now their favorable/unfavorable is 45/52. In 2018, it was 44/52. In 2014,it was 36/58. During the 2010 wave it was 43/52 and in 2006 it was 57/33.
Basically, the Democrats are staring another 2010 in the face.
Half of registered voters, literally 50%, say President Trump deserves reelection. At a comparable point in Obama’s first term, his re-elect was 47%. Trump is in the same position as George Bush in 2004.
52% of registered voters think Trump should be acquitted. This is a gain of 5 points since the Ukraine nonsense broke.
When you combine that with a historic high in economic confidence
— Steve Guest (@SteveGuest) February 5, 2020
President Trump is in a solid position to win the White House in 2020. If he campaigns on the issues in last night’s State of the Union and with the fire and spirit he has shown over the past four years, barring some major disaster, he will win.