There may be a Blue Wave in November, but one place it won’t be splashing is northeast Minnesota.

Though Minnesota’s Eighth District leans Republican in terms of voter registration, it has been reliably Democrat forever, with the exception of the blip on the radar of the Tea Party revolution in 2010 that saw newcomer Republican Chip Cravaak barely beat longtime machine Democrat James Oberstar. Cravaak was turfed out by Rick Nolan in 2012. Nolan announced in February that he was retiring from the House (he ran in the Democrat primary for Lieutenant Governor but lost).

Now that is changing.

In September, Republican Pete Stauber and Democrat Joe Radinovich were tied. Recent polls show Stauber running away with the election.

Updated! The latest polling on the race for Minnesota's open seat in congressional district 8: Pete Stauber (R) now leading Joe Radinovich (DFL), according to the latest @UpshotNYT/@SienaResearch poll https://t.co/7AHzOEeA2X
#MN08 #PollWatchMN pic.twitter.com/QlGybBpY73

— APM Research Lab (@APMResearch) October 16, 2018

Minnesota 8, final. Stauber 49, Radinovich 34
Is it real? Maybe a little. https://t.co/mQKTe096VR

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 15, 2018

New NYT/Siena poll finds Republican Pete Stauber with big lead in Minnesota’s Eighth District https://t.co/IZa56Donx3 via @MinnPost

— d m (@garlandowl) October 16, 2018

The numbers are real enough that the DCCC has decided to cut its losses.

DCCC has been the main Dem IE backing up Joe Radinovich — House Majority PAC not active here. News comes as Trump-backed America First PAC drops $2M to support Stauber

— Sam Brodey (@sambrodey) October 16, 2018

I don’t pretend to be able to predict political races, but the Blue Wave stuff has always seemed to me to be much more hype than reality.

Democrats have a 53-42 percent edge in the generic ballot for the House. But inside the 66 districts that are tossups, or only leaning, that lead evaporates into a 46-47 D v. R race. https://t.co/B2VelNrN5Z

— Rick Klein (@rickklein) October 15, 2018

More like it was a campaign tactic of the Democrats, amplified by their friends in the media, to give an air of inevitability and depress GOP turnout. I don’t doubt the GOP will lose seats but I don’t think losing the House is a given. The fact that we look to pick up a historically Democrat seat in the middle of what has been portrayed as a wave election just doesn’t seem correct.