Two New Iowa Caucus Polls: The Race Clarifies

United States presidential election, 2016

United States presidential election, 2016

Two new Iowa Caucus polls were released this morning. The verify what we already believe is happening in that state. Insert my constant warning about “poll-dolatry” and watch the consistent trends. Now off to the toplines.


Trump 25, Cruz 27, Rubio 9, Carson 11, Bush 7, Christie 4, Paul 3, Kasich 3, Huckabee 4, Fiorina 3, Santorum 1

Loras College

Trump 26, Cruz 25, Rubio 13, Carson 8, Bush 6, Christie 3, Paul 3, Kasich 4, Huckabee 3, Fiorina 2, Santorum 1

Individual Polls
rcp iowa caucus polls 1-21

Trend Line

rcp iowa caucus polls 1-21 2

If you toss out the insane Gravis poll (as I do) we see Cruz and Trump locked in a death struggle for first place. They are statistically tied and your guess is as good as mine as to how this will play out. The win here is much more important for Cruz than it is for Trump. If Trump wins in Iowa and, as it seems, coasts to a win in New Hampshire he will be in a strong position to run the tables. The irony is that Trump may have more appeal in some states, like New York and Ohio, than Cruz would.

The issue in Iowa will boil down to turnout. And, as always, there is the nagging question of who are Trump voters and will they actually turn out for a caucus? The Iowa caucuses are a closed system, only registered Republicans may participate in the GOP caucus. On the other hand, you can register to vote or change your party affiliation on the day of the caucus.

Rubio seems to be a lock for third place, his competition coming only from Carson’s Walking Dead campaign, and other polls seem to indicate that Rubio benefits more from Carson defections than any other campaign.