There are a couple of interest new polls out on the 2016 election campaign. In terms of numbers, they are probably slightly more accurate than examining a chicken’s entrails under a full moon but they seem to accurately reflect the zeitgeist.
First up: SurveyUSA.
In an election for President of the United States, today, Labor Day, business provocateur Donald Trump narrowly defeats Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Al Gore, in head-to-head matchups, according to nationwide polling conducted by SurveyUSA.
* Trump 45%, Clinton 40%. (There is a 20-point Gender Gap; Trump leads by 18 points among seniors.)
* Trump 44%, Sanders 40%. (Trump leads by 10 among independents and by 6 among moderates.)
* Trump 44%, Biden 42%. (Trump leads by 10 among the best educated; Biden leads by 17 among the least educated.)
* Trump 44%, Gore 41%. (Trump leads by 12 among men and by 18 among voters age 50+.)
Among a subset of registered voters who tell SurveyUSA that they pay “a lot” of attention to politics, the scale tilts to the right: Today it’s:
* Trump 54%, Clinton 36%.
* Trump 53%, Sanders 39%.
* Trump 53%, Biden 37%.
* Trump 54%, Gore 36%.
There is really no good news in here for either the Democrats or the GOP establishment. First, it shows Trump beating Hillary in men, voters age 35 and above, among whites and Asians. He is only 5 points behind her among women. He has 31% of the Hispanic vote and 25% of the black vote. (I will just note here that a June poll in Nevada had Trump pulling in 31% of Hispanics and was ridiculed.) To compare and contrast with Mitt Romneys exit polls, Trump has essentially the same gap in women as Romney. On the other hand, Romney too 7% of the black vote, 21% of the Hispanic vote, and 27% of the Asian vote. To the extent this poll is accurate it dispels the calumny that Trump is leading based on the votes of white racists. If the percentage of black vote is accurate within 10 points, Trump would win the election.
When the poll asked everyone who they think the GOP nominee will be, the outcome was Trump (39), Carson (14), Bush (20), Cruz (6), Rubio (4), Fiorina (3), Walker (2), Kasich (4) and meh, who knows (17). Bush made his place on the list due to the votes of Democrats. The stronger the Democrat the more likely they were to think Bush would win the nomination.
Next is the NBC/Marist Poll of New Hampshire and Iowa:
The news for Hillary is that among registered voters in both early primary states, Hillary remains very unpopular and she is hemorrhaging voters to Bernie Sanders:
Back in July’s NBC/Marist poll, Clinton was ahead of Sanders in the Granite State by 10 points, 42 percent to 32 percent, with Biden at 12 percent.
Without Biden in the race, Sanders’ lead over Clinton in the current survey increases to 11 points, 49 percent to 38 percent.
In Iowa, Clinton maintains her previous advantage over Sanders — but her lead has declined from 24 points in July (49 percent to 25 percent) to 11 points (38 percent to 27 percent); Biden sits at 20 percent.
The GOP poll shaped up a lot like SurveyUSAs:
Meanwhile, in the Republican presidential race, Donald Trump now holds a seven-point lead in Iowa and a 16-point one in New Hampshire.
In the Hawkeye State, Trump gets the support from 29 percent of potential GOP caucus-goers, while Ben Carson receives 22 percent. There’s a steep drop off after that: Jeb Bush gets 6 percent; Carly Fiorina, [mc_name name=’Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’P000603′ ] and Scott Walker get 5 percent; and [mc_name name=’Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’C001098′ ], [mc_name name=’Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’R000595′ ] and Bobby Jindal are at 4 percent.
In July, Walker was ahead of the Iowa Republican field at 19 percent, Trump was second at 17 percent and Bush was third at 12 percent.
In the Granite State, Trump is at 28 percent — followed by John Kasich at 12 percent, Carson at 11 percent, Bush at 8 percent and Fiorina at 6 percent; Walker is down to 4 percent.
Back in July, the top three in New Hampshire were Trump (21 percent), Bush (14 percent) and Walker (12 percent).
The only bit of cheer in here for anyone hoping Donald Trump can be stopped is that he is the second choice of only 9% while Ben Carson is second choice for 16%. Jeb Bush has 9% as a second choice making him more popular as a second choice than a first choice.
Both major parties need to come to grips with two facts. The Democrats are riding the Hindenburg of presidential campaigns. Hillary is not trusted. She is deeply unpopular. She is nearly the same age as Bernie Sanders. She hasn’t had a new idea in going on twenty years. She is under investigation by the FBI. All of that suggests that she will not appeal to an electorate that is damned tired of the status quo… assuming she avoids indictment. The Republicans are engaged in a self defeating exercise of attacking the supporters of Donald Trump. Probably never before in the history of politics has a major party taken to insulting and savaging the very people that will have to show up to support the eventual nominee. If the SurveyUSA poll is to be believed, Trump is succeeding in putting together a credible political presence in the black, Hispanic, and Asian communities, something that eluded both McCain and Romney. Why the GOP wouldn’t try to find out what he’s doing right is beyond me. But unless this idiocy stops the GOP will have thrown away a gimme election.