The New Development for NC Republicans and How It Could Be a Game-Changer for Them in 2028

Republicans in several red or reddish states felt the pain during last Tuesday's midterm elections, and North Carolina was definitely among them.

If unofficial results stand, we will go from a 10R-4D congressional delegation to 11D-3R. GOP Rep. Greg Murphy (NC-03) conceded Wednesday morning, losing by under 300 votes. There's no word yet on what the next step will be for Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx (NC-05), who currently trails her Democrat opponent by less than 400 votes. She's in recount territory, but a recount is unlikely to change things in her favor.

Control of the state house has also flipped to Democrats. And with having a Democrat governor, Josh Stein, the cherry on top for them would be to win the state senate, which would give them a trifecta after being out of power. But as of last night, if unofficial results hold, Republicans are likely to hold on to the state senate after an outstanding race in Senate District 24 had incumbent Sen. Danny Britt (R-Robeson) in the lead after the approved provisionals were added to the totals:

With all provisionals now reported in #SD24, Republican Danny Britt leads by 228 votes. He entered the day up by 268 votes. While Dems can request a recount, Britt appears likely to hold the seat, giving GOP a 26-24 majority in the state Senate. #ncpol https://t.co/9AXo7OCVfG

— Bryan Anderson (@BryanRAnderson) November 10, 2026

Since we have a Democrat Lt. Gov. (Rachel Hunt), if the Senate went 25-25, that would mean she'd be the tiebreaker. As of this writing, it's unclear if Britt's Democrat opponent, Catina Hamm, will request a recount. She and other candidates have until Nov. 17 to do so.

As I wrote before, it was critical, on an otherwise bad night, that Republicans be able to hold the state senate because talk has already turned to thoughts of forming an "independent" redistricting commission now that Democrats have some power. Gov. Stein has already mentioned he'd be on board with it, as has House Speaker-elect Robert Reives (D-Chatham), who revealed this week that he was looking for a "permanent solution" to the purported gerrymander problem sooner rather than later:

“What I want to see is a permanent solution,” Reives said. “So any solution you see about independent redistricting will be something that the next legislature won't be able to just throw out and start doing bad things again.”

In other words, it appears Reives is operating on the assumption that Republicans will win back many of the seats they lost Tuesday night and perhaps could take control of the state house again, which goes back to a point I and others were making soon after it was clear a blue tsunami was happening:

Three reasons to expect at least big push for new congressional plan in NC in 28. 1. Dems are likely to lose seats they won last night, 2. Plausible deniability regarding problem of mid-decade redistricting and commission take too long, 3. Elias & nat Dems will make it happen.

— Andrew J. Taylor (@ajtfosp) November 5, 2026

Like Professor Taylor, I wouldn't put it past them. But it wouldn't make sense for them to try to redraw state and congressional maps during the upcoming session or at any point ahead of 2028, not only because there would be resistance from a (presumably) GOP-controlled Senate, but also because then Democrats would have to explain to voters why they'd be redrawing maps they won off of in 2026.

So it appears they are going to attempt the independent redistricting commission route, which will also face significant headwinds in part because there will be little to no trust on the Republican Senate side that such a proposal, which would have to be put forth to voters for approval, would truly be independent. 

Needless to say, with the thought in mind that there's a reasonable chance that much of what we lost on Election Day can be won back in 2028 - which assumes there are no map changes and that we course-correct on messaging, priorities, and ground game - some Republicans who lost on Tuesday have already filed to run again:

FEC: Outgoing Rep. Addison McDowell (R-NC) files to run again in 2028 #NC06 https://t.co/atUIcw5HV4

— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) November 10, 2026

It stinks to be in this position, but we've gotta claw back somehow. The time to start is right now.

Editor's Note: The Democrat Party has been infected by socialism, and it's spreading FAST. Democrats are claiming there's nothing to worry about, but we know the truth.

Help us continue to shine a light on the socialist takeover by joining RedState VIP. Use promo code FIGHT to get 60% off your VIP membership.