The Michigan Senate primary race on the Democrat side has been interesting to watch play out because it's become a standout microcosm of the larger war between establishment Democrats and the growing socialist wing of the party, the latter of which has seen primary victories in states like New York and Colorado in recent weeks.
Three candidates were vying for the nomination: establishment-backed Rep. Haley Stevens (MI-11), Sanders-backed former Wayne County health department director Abdul El-Sayed, and Warren-backed state Sen. Mallory McMorrow.
El-Sayed's campaign surged in the springtime, while Stevens struggled to make any headway. After a brief rise in the polls, McMorrow was not able to capitalize on it as she tried to straddle the fence over the Israel-Hamas war, which has become a focal point in the race. She suspended her campaign over the Independence Day holiday weekend in what some political observers saw as a bid to help Stevens defeat El-Sayed.
SEE ALSO: Watch: Michigan Senate Debate Reveals Just How Bad Both Democrat Candidates Are
After McMorrow exited, Stevens, who is the pro-Israel candidate, gained momentum and pushed ahead of the anti-America, pro-Hamas El-Sayed in a post-McMorrow drop-out poll. But a rash of new polling shows El-Sayed with double-digit leads over her just days before the August 4 primary. A new one for Emerson confirms it:
Progressive Abdul El-Sayed is leading Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) by 15 points ahead of next week’s Democratic primary for Michigan’s open Senate seat, according to a new poll.
An Emerson College Polling/WLNS/WOODTV survey released Thursday showed El-Sayed handily defeating Stevens in the primary with 54 percent support to Stevens’s 39 percent. A separate 6 percent of respondents said they were undecided while about 2 percent backed state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D), who dropped out of the race earlier this summer.
When factoring in undecided Democratic voters who were asked who they lean toward, El-Sayed rose to 57 percent support while Stevens sat at 41 percent. A separate 2 percent of respondents supported McMorrow.
The numbers tell the story:
El-Sayed is firmly in the driver's seat in the most recent #MIsen Democrat primary polls. pic.twitter.com/eQQFwe9YHD
— Sister Toldjah 💙 (@sistertoldjah) July 30, 2026
What does this all mean for former Rep. Mike Rogers (MI-08), the Trump-endorsed presumptive GOP nominee? The most recent data available for hypothetical general election match-ups shows that between the two, Rogers would fare better against El-Sayed:
Former Rep. Mike Rogers, the presumptive Republican nominee for Senate in Michigan, comfortably leads progressive Abdul El-Sayed and is neck and neck with Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) in new polling just one week out from the Michigan Senate primary.
A Michigan Education survey, which was conducted by the Glengariff Group and commissioned by the Michigan Education Association and Business Leaders for Michigan, shows Rogers beating El-Sayed by 10 points in a hypothetical match-up. Eleven percent of respondents were undecided.
Also of note in the poll was this:
The Glengariff Group noted in their survey that Stevens and Rogers receive nearly identical support among independents voters — with about 40 percent and 39 percent, respectively. But the pollster noted Rogers holds a nearly 28-point lead over El-Sayed among independents.
If El-Sayed wins the nomination, this race would be a big test to see if a DSA-backed nominee can go the distance in a statewide race taking place in a battleground state. Rogers has to be licking his chops over the possibility of taking on El-Sayed in the general, but no one should consider the race a sure flip for the GOP in the event El-Sayed defeats Stevens.
This guy is bad news, but he's not clueless and personally scandal-ridden like Graham Platner. Early on, Stevens was thought to be the one who would easily win the primary, but El-Sayed has left her in the dust. He knows what he's doing in a purple state like Michigan, right down to portraying himself as the real "America first" candidate because he believes taxpayer dollars shouldn't be used to fund foreign wars (namely the Israel-Hamas war). The Rogers campaign will do well not to underestimate him.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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