New Pre-Caucus Nevada Poll Signals the End Is Very Near for Joe Biden's Presidential Campaign

Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders

Former Vice President Joe Biden, left, embraces Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., during a Democratic presidential primary debate, Friday, Feb. 7, 2020, hosted by ABC News, Apple News, and WMUR-TV at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, N.H. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)


After an embarrassing loss in the Iowa caucuses, Joe Biden didn’t even stick around for New Hampshire primary results to start rolling in before he jetted down to South Carolina in hopes of jump starting his campaign in advance of the state’s Feb. 29th primary.

Biden and his surrogates have made it a point to note in media interviews and on social media that Iowa and New Hampshire are “not representative” of the Democratic party’s diversity – Iowa is 90% white and New Hampshire is 93% white. Because of this, Biden’s team have stated that Democrats need someone who can win a diverse coalition of voters in order to be able to effectively challenge Trump in the fall.

Because Biden polled overwhelmingly well with black voters in South Carolina for months last year and in the state overall, he believes he can win the state handily and prove that he can make up for his New Hampshire and Iowa defeats and show the party he’s the guy to take on Trump.

But he has to get beyond the Nevada caucuses first. Scheduled for this coming Saturday, political observers are quick to point out that Nevada “will be the most diverse state” so far for Democrats. How is Biden doing there in the polls? Not good at all, according to the most recent one:


Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) holds a 19-point lead in Nevada, the next state to vote in the 2020 presidential nominating contest, according to a poll released Monday.

Progressive pollster Data for Progress found the democratic socialist with 35 percent support Nevada ahead of its caucus on Saturday. Clumped behind him are Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former Vice President Joe Biden, with 16 percent, 15 percent and 14 percent support, respectively.

And when it comes to Hispanic support, which is key for a Democrat to win the Nevada caucuses, Sanders easily bests Biden there, too:

Sanders held an overwhelming advantage among voters under age 45, who backed him at 64 percent, and Hispanic voters, who supported him at 66 percent. No other candidate registered in the double digits for Hispanic support.

A previous Nevada poll showed Biden was within shouting distance of Sanders, but that has clearly changed.

In a post last week where he pointed out Sanders’ support among Hispanic Democrats, my RedState colleague Brad Slager made the following observation about Biden:


So as Sanders has closed to within single digits of Biden among black voters he more than doubles Biden among Hispanics — 37%-16%. This spells doom for the Vice President, while he is counting on South Carolina to resuscitate his campaign.

Yep, and if the Monday poll showing Sanders’ surge in Nevada overall, especially among Hispanic Democrats is a reliable indicator, it will be all over but the crying at that point for Biden’s campaign after Saturday’s Nevada caucus results come in.



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