Excuse Me While I Call BS: In Michigan

AP Photo/Brynn Anderson

1964 was a banner year for Democrats. Many, motivated by the death of JFK and the prospect of carrying his legacy on through President Johnson, showed up to the polls to vote.  In Michigan, Kent County went to Johnson by a huge margin, defeating the Republican Nominee, Barry Goldwater by 13 points.  In both 2012 and 2016, Republicans took the county, and now suddenly, after a giant swing, Biden won the county by 6 points.  Remember, Obama didn’t even pull these numbers in 2008 or 2012. Excuse me while I call BS.

A county, that has gone Republican in more races since 1964 than Democrat, even having gone Republican in the course of the past two election cycles with native-son Mitt Romney in 2012 and to Trump in 2016 by 3 points, swings suddenly, out of nowhere, back into the blue column?  A nine-point swing?  In 4 years?  GET OUT.

Yet in Michigan, eight counties bucked the 2012 numbers by huge margins.  Of the state’s 83 counties, Biden lagged on Obama’s 2012 showing in 56 of those counties.  Of those 56 counties, Biden trailed Obama by double digits in half of them and single digits in the other half.  For all the counties in the state, Biden trailed Obama’s 2012 performance by an average of 1.01%.  In the eight counties, we are looking at today, Biden beat Obama by anywhere between 29.56% to (yes, this number is correct) 51.08%.  As I have said before, Biden isn’t Obama, and if anything he’s just to the north of Clinton on likeability.  You’re never going to convince me that suddenly in cities that aren’t Detroit, Biden jumps Obama by double-digits, especially when that trend doesn’t carry to any other county in non-swing states.

To Compare, Trump in 2020 improved in every county over 2012, except for one, where he lost 0.3% over Romney.  Trump improved, on average 34.06% in counties in Michigan over Romney’s 2012 showing. Again, Biden’s average underperformed by 1.01% while Trump’s average overperformed by 34.06%.  Voter’s attitudes across the state favored Trump.

First, in Livingston County, the county has had a 12.21% increase in voter registration since 2012.  Only 6 counties in Michigan had double-digit increases in voter registration and 4 of those, are the counties we are looking at.  Trump improved over Romney by 28.12% but that rate was halved as it came from a 9 point gain in 2016 and then another 17 points in 2020 over 2016.  Clinton on the other hand, underperformed Obama 7.61 points.  Biden allegedly gained back every bit of that vote plus an additional 29.56% in a single cycle.  I included this county as an example as it falls on the line of statistically unlikely and impossible.  Sure, it is possible in some ways, however, it isn’t when the voter attitude is so narrow.  In other words, Trump’s support and increase is across the board.  Biden’s support an increase comes from just these few counties.

Neighboring Washtenaw County (9.16% increase in registration since 2012) is the one county where Trump lagged on Romney’s 2012 turnout, however, missed making it by just 171 votes.  In the meantime, Biden outperformed Obama by 29.98 points or 13,834 votes.  Remember, Biden didn’t beat Obama’s average in Wayne County (home to Detroit and neighbor to Washtenaw County) Biden missed that mark by 1.47% yet in Washtenaw, Biden not only meets that but beats it by 30 points?  Red flag anyone?

In Leelanau County(6.23% increase in registration since 2016), Biden outperformed Obama by 33.71%.  The county that went to Trump in 2016, suddenly flips to Biden.  Neighboring Counties, make up 2 of the other counties that Biden outperformed Obama in, Grand Traverse (12% increase in registration and a 37.40% increase over Obama) and Antrim (7.64% increase in registration and a 42.37% increase over Obama). Antrim has already made the news with their 6,000 vote oopsie, and they still somehow make a 42% increase over Obama’s 2012 performance.  For reference, in neighboring Kalaska County, which sits between Antrim and Grand Traverse, Biden underperformed Obama by 8.2%.  That’s a 45 and 50 point swing to each neighboring county.  The Northwestern part of the Lower Penninsula appears to have had a major push from Democrat organizations.  The advantage that is seen along the coast, that is double-digits over Obama’s 2012 turnout, vanishes in every neighboring county.  These coastal counties go from 16 to 42 points up, to neighboring counties of underperforming by 5.6 points, 5.6 points, and 6.7 points respectively.  Again, another 48 point swing over 30 miles.

Lastly, returning to Kent County, Biden beat Obama’s turnout by 40% (39.99%) in a county that saw just a 10% increase in registration since 2012.  That increase netted Biden another 48,000 voters.  In our last County, Ottawa County, Biden outperformed Obama by 51.08% in a county that saw just a 13.52% increase in registration since 2012.  I get that people didn’t like Trump.  Beating Obama’s 2012 showing by 50 points?  Not buying it.  Of the 6 neighboring counties, Biden’s range is from underperforming by 15 points to overperforming by 2.72 points.  That’s another 38 to 65 point swing from county to county.  A little hard to believe.

The trend I am beginning to see is what appears to be operations in counties where Dems feel that they could pick up a lot of votes, where they didn’t have to carry the counties (Trump won most of the counties) but that they only had to clear enough votes out of these counties to allow for the metro areas to carry the state.  Does it look like fraud?  Can’t say, but again, the mysterious disappearing double-digit advantage strikes again.  I could understand a slide from 1 county to the next by say, 8 or 10 points.  Hell, go buck wild and say 15 points.  38 to 65 points?  Huge red flag.

Long and the short of it, I don’t see enough votes in Michigan for Trump to come back for a win.  Sure, there’s plenty of questionable data here, and enough to justify further investigation. Biden leads the state by 149,000 votes.  I agree that these gains are likely questionable, but even if we erased the gains from these counties, we still only end up with a Biden lead of 24,000 votes.  I welcome an investigation, but I believe efforts would be better spent on Wisconsin.

This article is a part of a series discussing the 2020 election results.  Here are the other articles in the series:

Excuse Me While I Call BS: In Wisconsin

Excuse Me While I Call BS: In Pennsylvania