Excuse Me While I Call BS: In Wisconsin

(Max Ortiz/Detroit News via AP)

Let’s face the fact here and now:  Biden isn’t Obama.  Not only does common sense say this, but the data also says it.  In following the run-up to the 2020 election, I watched polling data, voter registration data, and other key factors that would lead to the suggestion of who would win the race in Wisconsin.  Let me be clear, I didn’t predict a Trump landslide.  I said he would win with 285 to 295 votes, with Minnesota being a super-reach state.  In looking at the data coming out of the election, I still think this is going to be the case.  For instance, in Wisconsin, data suggests that there are issues that need looking into in 5 counties in particular:  Washington, St. Croix, Dane, Waukesha, and Ozaukee Counties.

Why these counties?  Well, in particular, these are the counties in which Joe Biden beat Barack Obama’s turnout by double digits.  In 57 of Wisconsin’s counties, Biden underperformed Obama’s turnout, in some counties by as much as 28%.  In 37 of those counties, Biden underperformed Obama’s turnout by double digits. When factored for population losses, that number rises to 41.  In another 16 counties, Biden underperformed Obama by single digits.  In 10 counties, Biden overperformed Obama, but in 3 of those counties, when factored for population losses since 2012, did not beat Obama’s 2012 turnout.  In Trump’s column, Trump beat the 2012 turnout in every county except 4 and his 2016 turnout in every county in Wisconsin.  That means that Trump improved in 95% of counties while Biden lost in 80% of counties.  To simplify even further, Trump averaged a 30.31% average increase in Wisconsin over 2012 and a 16.39% increase over 2016. To compare that to Biden’s tally of an average underperformance of Obama by 8.51% over 2012 and a 17.39% increase over Clinton’s 2016 performance.  That leaves us with our 5 counties in question.

In Washington County, just outside of Milwaukee, Biden overperformed Obama by 15.03%. For reference, in Milwaukee, Biden underperformed Obama by 4.57%.  That’s almost a 20 point swing in voter-behavior in just 20 miles.   While I don’t discount that Biden could do better in a few counties, to suggest that he would suddenly OVERPERFORM by double digits when he failed to do that throughout the state, definitely would raise some questions in a lot of people’s minds.  Not only is the sudden double-digit rise questionable, but It happens in a county that Trump still won anyway.

In St. Croix County which actually finds itself as more of a Minneapolis suburb, Biden beat Obama’s 2012 turnout by more than 3200 votes (16.47% increase) and Clintons turnout by 5708 Votes (or 32.65%).  Again, another massive jump that is completely unexplained as Biden underperformed the three bordering counties by 4.36%, 7.07%, and 12.43% respectively.  This signals a shift in voter attitudes by anywhere from 20 to 28 points, in just a couple of miles.  Again, as with Washington County, Trump also won St. Croix with a 26 point increase over 2016.  Since 2012, St. Croix had a 6% increase in registration, which could be a factor for some of that voter increase, but even so, still shows a double-digit increase over Obama’s 2012 turnout.

In Dane County, Biden shot past Obama by 20.4%, another strange statistical bump that denies the national trend, state trend, and regional trend.  Of the 7 counties surrounding Dane, Biden underperformed Obama anywhere from 12.38% to 1.26%.  Suddenly, as you cross that county border Biden support jumps 20 points?  Not plausible.  Again, it is difficult to see how Biden underperformed in Milwaukee and then suddenly crushed it in Madison or that voter attitudes and behaviors would shift by 20-32 points in a few miles.  The increase in Dane County factored for 44,086 more votes than Obama.  This again points to a huge statistical improbability.  For reference, Biden only won the state by 20,000 votes.

In Waukesha County, the questionable numbers continue, where Biden beat Obama’s 2012 turnout by 31.85%.  Since 2016, the county has only seen an increase in registration of 1.47%, and Trump underperformed in 2012, by 1.94%.  Trump did see a 12% increase amongst Republicans over his 2016 performance in the county.  Waukesha County, which borders 6 counties, outperformed those counties from anywhere between 15 and 43 points which makes it a crazy statistical outlier.  In neighboring Milwaukee, Biden still lagged Obama, but we are supposed to believe that 10 miles away, he beat Obama by 30%?  I don’t think anyone either on the right or the left, really truly believes that.  That insane jump accounted for 25,088 votes that went to Biden over Obama’s 2012 haul.  Again, Biden only won the state by 20,000 votes.

Lastly, in Ozaukee County, Biden posted a staggering 38.39% improvement over Obama’s 2012 turnout.  That county only had a 2.19% increase in registration since 2016.  In the three counties that border Ozaukee, Biden ranged from a 4.57% underperformance to a 15.03% overperformance, which means that Ozaukee County overperformed the neighboring counties from anywhere between 23 and 42%.  This just doesn’t happen in elections.  Ozaukee County wouldn’t outperform Milwaukee County to the south, by 42 points simply because of a few voter attitudes.  The anti-Trump fervor that the left wants to give credit for a shift of this magnitude doesn’t evaporate over 10 miles.

What’s the point of all this?  Trump’s data follows a natural and reasonable distribution.  Where Trump did better, he did better than Romney almost as a rule.  When Biden did better, he did better than Clinton in every county, which is to be expected, but still lagged over Obama in the majority of counties, many bordering these massive growth counties.  If I were the Trump campaign, I would be looking at each of these counties with a magnifying glass.  In totality, in those five counties, Biden beat Obama by 83,291 votes, in a state where Biden beat Trump by just 20,000 votes.  Am I saying it is 100% fraud?  Without being able to be inside the offices in each of these counties, I cannot, but what I am saying is the statistical nature of this forensic vote audit shows that these 5 counties didn’t just buck the trend, they bucked it by double-digit percentages.  That… That is what requires some additional review.

Update:  A reader asked about the total turnout in these 5 counties. The state is 92% total turnout. The 5 counties are Washington at 96.6%, St. Croix at 96%(95.99%), Dane at 90.38%, Waukesha at 94.56% and, Ozaukee at 94.96%.

This article is from a series about the 2020 election results.  Here are the other articles in the series:

Excuse Me While I Call BS: In Michigan

Excuse Me While I Call BS: In Pennsylvania