Hot Takes: If the Early Return Data Is Correct, Democrats Should Be Preparing Themselves for a Bad Tuesday

On Friday, I posted over at VIP all of the early returns that have come in thus far for all of the battleground states. That data is a combination of voter registration data, ballot data of how many ballots were requested, and commercial data that explains voter behavior. The data has updated since then, but that data was bad news for Democrats Friday, and it was even worse for them by Sunday night.


Democrats really needed to run up the score in early voting in order to overcome the large Trump leaning turn-out expected for Election Day. At this point, in 5 of the 12 Battleground States, Republicans currently lead in early returns, including in Texas, Georgia, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Short of a massive Dem turnout on Tuesday, those states all fall to Trump. Furthermore, Dems only lead by 1 point in returns in Arizona, 3 points in Nevada, 2 points in Florida, and 5 points in North Carolina. Should the DOE vote carry for Trump in those states, Trump should win those states as well. If Trump wins those states, He ends up with 284 electoral votes, and the biggest part of that is that leaves Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Minnesota on the table.

Furthermore, Dems should be terrified of the fact that in most of the states in which they lead, Democrats have burned through more of their registered voters than have the Republicans. In Pennsylvania, for instance, only 15% of Republicans have voted to date, compared to 35% of Democrats. In every state in which Republicans trail in returns, except for North Carolina, Republicans have more voters to turn out than Democrats. In North Carolina, Dems have 2 points more of their registered voters to push out to the polls while Republicans have a 1 point lead in the number of voters to turn out in Florida. In every other state in which Dems lead, Republicans have a double-digit advantage in election day voting.


The other huge factor for Dems is the amount of outstanding vote in the states in which they lead. In Pennsylvania, between 64 and 65% of the vote has yet to be cast. In Minnesota, that number is between 51 and 52%. Iowa? Between 44 and 46%.

These numbers are why you have seen the collective panic from the left in the last few days. The major push for mail ballots that was going to solidify a massive, insurmountable lead only occurred in one state, Pennsylvania, where estimates have Dem ballot returns up by 43 points. The problem again? More than 60% of the state has yet to vote and Trump is expected to do extremely well in DOE voters.

A VIP piece due out this afternoon will dive into deep detail on what final early vote totals look like.


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