We are now less than a month away from the 2026 midterm elections, and, just like in any modern election, incumbents and those looking to unseat them are looking at the economic indicators with a mixture of concern and apprehension — and, in some cases, thinly disguised glee. And, in this 2026 midterm election, the confidence of the voting public in the economy has been widely reported to be lacking.
Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, is skeptical about that.
Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, said Sunday that he doesn’t believe in recent polls that show Americans’ negative feelings about the economy.
“Ahead of an election cycle, the fact that there’s, you know, possibly partisan pollsters telling us that the people are really really depressed, it’s a classic Democrat move, and I just don’t buy it,” Hassett told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union.”
“Because if it were true, if the polls were any value for thinking about what’s going on with consumers, then we should look at the consumption data and say, ‘Geez, yeah, that’s right. People aren’t spending.’ But, in fact, the retailers are doing well,” he added.
Mr. Hassett probably has a point on the partisan nature of some pollsters, what with the national epidemic of Trump Derangement Syndrome that has swept the country since 2015. But honestly, some of the indicators are a little muddled. But there are some bright spots. Consumer confidence levels are about where they have been for the past year, certain international events and fuel prices notwithstanding. And, while this data is still coming in for 2026, the 2025 numbers in the current administration were good, with real median household income rising and unemployment ticking downward.
Still, this isn't a time where Republican candidates should be pointing to the NEC chair's remarks and counting on everything being just hunky-dory. The economy is still a lot tighter than we'd like it to be, fuel prices are still higher than we'd like them to be, and history generally favors the challenging party in midterms. And there is good news to spread around, for example, consumer spending, which has been trending upward all year. It's not all due to fuel prices, either; chain store receipts are up throughout 2026, household debt to GDP is dropping, and retail sales ex automobiles and fuel took a sharp spike in August. Those are pretty good indicators. But inflation is higher than any incumbent would like.
In other words, Kevin Hassett may have a point. But remember, it's perception, not numbers, that matter to most voters. And, "It's the economy, stupid" still applies. Democrat challengers are going to hit the economy hard, but they may have one problem: The nostrums peddled by the new "democratic socialist" wing of their party, who are increasingly vocal, have been tried before, in places like the Soviet Union, North Korea, and Cuba; that's their fatal flaw. That's another message Republican candidates can hit.
As for us, we already know our role in this contest: Vote. If you have to bite your tongue to vote, then do it. At all hazard, vote.