Elections can bring some real surprises. Case in point: Only a few weeks ago most political junkies would have thought that Minnesota's Senate race, given the nature of the Land of 10,000 Lakes and at least 10,000 welfare fraud schemes, was a shoo-in for the Democrat candidate, Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan. But now, in the wake of Flanagan and her boss, Governor Tim "Great Walz of China," being implicated or at least linked to several major fraud schemes, the race is tightening. The Republican candidate, Michele Tafoya, has closed the polling gap, with the latest showing the race to be a tie.
We may be looking at an upset in the making.
The Minnesota senate race is polling unusually close as the state enters the midterms' homestretch. Republicans are sharply criticizing the state’s Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan for welfare fraud under the Walz administration’s watch, hoping that tying her to the scandals will help decide the race that could be an unexpected pickup opportunity for Republicans in the midterms.
The most recent polling in the Minnesota race shows Republican Michelle Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter, tied with current Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, and the race is tightening. After the primary elections earlier this year, Flanagan held about a five-point lead over Tafoya. That lead has now evaporated about a month and a half out from the election. While Tafoya has adopted the usual Republican framing on issues like immigration, crime, and tax cuts, she has seized upon the recent welfare fraud scandals in the blue state to hammer her opponent.
She's not the only one hammering Peggy Flanagan on this issue. Flanagan is linked to one Nimco Ahmed, whom Flanagan describes as a great personal friend. Ahmed is implicated in fraudulent billing schemes for autism treatment centers. That's still working through the due process, but this is an election, not a trial, and in the case of an election, that may be enough to tip the scale.
Or will it? This account cites one poll, a KSTP/Survey USA poll taken from 9/9 to 9/14, which shows the two candidates tied. But a co/efficient poll taken on 9/14 and 9/15 shows Flanagan ahead by one point, with a Quantus Insights showing Flanagan with a four point lead; the final recent poll is a TIPP poll taken from 8/31 to 9/2, showing Flanagan leading by two points. That gives a RealClear Polling average showing Flanagan ahead by 1.8 points.
But boy howdy, that's too close for comfort for a Democrat in Minnesota, this close to the election, with the trend going the wrong way.
One Republican representative from Minnesota has a pretty good summary of why this is happening.
“When you talk about our Senate race, the polls say Michelle Tafoya is tied, and some put her two up against Peggy Flanagan. Remember, Peggy Flanagan [is] the lieutenant governor. She walked side by side with Walz as this massive fraud took over our state, and now she's trying to distance herself,” Rep. Pete Stauber, R-Minn., told the Just the News, No Noise TV show.
“You can't do that. She was with Walz step and step, and Michelle Tafoya and the Republicans in the state of Minnesota are holding the Walz administration and the Flanagan administration accountable for this disastrous billions of dollars of fraud that they perpetrated upon the Minnesota taxpayers,” he added.
But they did do that. Yes, Peggy Flanagan walked side by side with the least competent governor in the United States. Yes, she is tied to accused fraudsters and their schemes. But the Tafoya campaign has been handed a big, beautiful cudgel with which to beat the Flanagan campaign, and that's a show that needs to go on the road. These kinds of fraud schemes are legion; it seems hardly a day goes by without some new outrage on this quarter, and they are almost all happening in Democrat-run jurisdictions. That's not just an arrow in the quiver for Michele Tafoya, although it is that; it's a bunch of arrows in the quivers of Republican candidates across the fruited plain. It seems to be making a difference in Minnesota. It should make a difference everywhere.
The 2026 midterm election is one of the most contentious and consequential in the history of the republic. Every vote will count. Every tactic must be employed. Every shot you don't take is one you will always miss. And every Republican and right-leaning independent has to do their part too: Vote! Vote! Vote!