President Trump used his Truth Social outlet Monday to again call for an end to the war in Ukraine, acknowledging that Russia had "lost control of its Diesel Oil industry" because of the Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries.

Russia has unfortunately lost control of its Diesel Oil Industry due to its War with Ukraine. A large number of their Diesel refineries have been blown up and are, at least temporarily, out of commission. This ridiculous and never ending War with Ukraine must be ended. The whole World suffers as 25,000 people, mostly soldiers, are being killed each month. What a shame! President DJT

I think there is a lot going on in this statement, and a good starting point is at the beginning: February 22, 2022, when Russia initiated an unprovoked attack on a much weaker neighbor. Instead of a glorious three-day jaunt to victory, the war has become a meat grinder that doesn't seem winnable if we judge that by Vladimir Putin's demands. In fact, Russia, including Moscow, has found itself under attack from Ukrainian cruise missiles and drones and is unable to stop them; see Ukraine Launches Massive Drone Attack on Russia, Including Hundreds Targeting Moscow – RedState.

“The Nazis entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to bomb everyone else, and nobody was going to bomb them. At Rotterdam, London, Warsaw, and half a hundred other places, they put their rather naive theory into operation. They sowed the wind, and now they are going to reap the whirlwind.”

― Air Marshal Sir Arthur Travers "Bomber" Harris

Part of that whirlwind has been the devastation of the Russian oil industry. The International Energy Agency reports that only five of Russia's 34 refineries have escaped attack. Those are all located east of the Urals. In the first eight months of 2026, a Russian refinery was hit on average once every three days. Some plants near Ukraine have been hit up to ~15 times since 2022. Eight of Russia's top 10 refineries have been hit.

The results have been catastrophic. Three of the top six Russian diesel refineries are either shut down or operating at a fraction of undamaged capacity. Diesel production is down by approximately 30 percent; gasoline and aviation fuel are down by a quarter. Diesel, gasoline, and aviation fuel shortages are now a fact of life in Russia.

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While bad news for the Russians, it is strange that Trump would be concerned about it. We haven't imported Russian diesel since 2022. Because of the war, Russia has restricted diesel exports. These restrictions started before the current spike in U.S. diesel prices.

Ukraine's attacks on Russian diesel refineries have zero impact on U.S. diesel prices. As Russia has banned diesel exports, it seems unlikely that diesel shortages in Europe and Asia are related to Ukrainian strikes on refineries. The price of crude oil drives those prices, and that, in turn, is affected by the Strait of Hormuz being a war zone and the Saudi-Houthi spat, 

The real issue is that the ability of the U.S. to affect the direction of negotiations on the war in Ukraine seems to be minimal.

On September 13, President Trump demanded that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stop attacks on Russian diesel refineries.

"Mr. Zelenskiy has to do one thing: He has to ‌stop ⁠knocking out diesel fuel in Russia," Trump told journalists during a visit to the Irish Open, which is being held in the west of Ireland on a golf course owned by his family.

"We spoke to Mr. ⁠Zelenskiy about it. There are plenty of other targets. Don't hit diesel fuel. That's hurting the world," he said.

That was followed up by an announcement of success.

Ukraine has agreed not to hit Russian Energy targets. Russia has agreed to do, likewise! The World’s Diesel price rise is mostly caused by the Russia/Ukraine War, not Iran. President DJT

The truth was a bit more...nuanced. 

The Ukrainians agreed to stop strikes against energy infrastructure in Russia if Russia did the same in Ukraine.

The Russians agreed to stop hitting energy targets in Ukraine if the agreement included 1) a "permanent" ban on Ukraine hitting refineries, pipelines, pumping stations, and oil storage facilities, 2) a ban on Ukraine attacking Russian shipping, and 3) the West releasing frozen Russian assets and sanctions on Russian oil.

Needless to say, there was no deal.

Trump resumed the pressure on Ukraine in a call Sunday.

Donald Trump pressed his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a call on Sunday to halt Kyiv’s strikes on Russian refineries over concerns that the attacks are exacerbating a global diesel shortage and pushing up prices, according to people familiar with the call. 

The US president’s main message was about “diesel, diesel . . . diesel” and urging Zelenskyy to order his military to cease their drone and missile attacks, a senior Ukrainian official who was on the call told the FT. 

Another senior Ukrainian official familiar with the call said that Trump emphasised he was very worried about the rising price of diesel and wanted to ensure Russian supplies could reach the global market to provide relief.

Zelensky's response must have been less than encouraging, given the tone of Monday's Truth Social post.

The bottom line is that if the war in Ukraine stopped tomorrow, gasoline and diesel prices in the U.S. would be unaffected. In fact, it would be zero everywhere because the effects of Ukrainian strikes will take months to repair. On the other hand, protecting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz would return Gulf exports to normal in days, and the crisis would abate.