President Trump appears to be aware that he's between a rock and a hard place concerning Iran. On the one hand, Iran's military and economy are wrecked, and the regime appears to be tottering. On the other hand, the American midterms are closing in fast, and what remains of Iran's leadership knows that; what's more, they know that an ongoing war with Iran may cost Republicans in the polls.
On Thursday, the president seemed to acknowledge that, stating that he has a "big decision coming up" on Iran.
President Trump said Thursday that he was at a crossroads over whether to renew attacks in Iran to wipe out the regime and bring the war to an end.
“I have a big decision coming up. Do I want to go in and annihilate them or do I not?” he told Axios. “It’s a big decision. Anything could happen with me.”
Trump’s comments echo previous threats he’s levied against Tehran since the war began.
But this time, he said, his next move is likely to be influenced by his meetings with Gulf allies at next week’s United Nations General Assembly meeting.
The Gulf states, most notably Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, generally seen as U.S. allies, have taken some hits from Iran in the form of missile and drone attacks. Logically, President Trump would like their input before taking any new action. Note that the president mentions the key word in his statement: "Do I want to go in and annihilate them or do I not?" This doesn't necessarily mean weapons of mass destruction, especially since the only kind the USA has is nuclear; it's more likely the president is referring to Iran's remaining civil and military leadership.
He will be seeking more input from the other nations of the region.
“I want to find out where they are and how they are doing. We have been very protective of them,” Trump added.
Tensions are expected to be high at the gathering after the Iran-backed Houthis launched fierce attacks on Saudi Arabia this past week, threatening global oil and gas supplies.
The United States is providing satellite intelligence to Saudi Arabia in place of direct assistance, but we also know that China is providing the same sort of support to Iran. It's unclear what, if any, conversations the administration has had with China recently.
The midterms are key. The administration and Congressional Republicans would like to have this thing done with and oil prices heading back down as soon as possible, to grease their skids going into the actual election. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent recently expressed his belief that oil prices could drop dramatically after a peace deal with Iran, possibly to $40 a barrel. His estimate is based on the increasing stocks, but right now, Iran isn't producing, and it's not clear how fast they would be able to start moving petroleum again after a peace deal.
Right now, things are as they have been for a week or so: Iran would like to drag things out as long as they can, and there's little doubt China and Russia, both of whom support Iran to one degree or another, would like to do likewise; a divided and uncertain American government helps them, not us.