My, what a difference a few days makes.

On Wednesday, it looked like a surprise offensive by Yemeni government forces had knocked Iran's proxies, the Houthis, back on their heels. In just a day of hard fighting, the Houthis had been routed from several strongholds and Yemeni Deputy Defense Minister Samir al-Sabri declared that “the decision has been made to retake Sanaa.”

This looked like another case of Iran throwing one of its proxy armies to the wolves in an attempt to save its own hide; see Iran Burns Another Proxy: Houthis Nearing Panic After Tehran-Ordered Offensive Fails – RedState.

By Thursday, the story had changed. Not only had the Houthis rallied and stopped the government advances, but they were also pushing their way down the Red Sea coastline toward the Bab al-Mendeb Strait, a maritime chokepoint more critical than the Strait of Hormuz because it controls access to the Suez Canal; see New: Iran-Backed Houthis Seize Vital Yemeni Port - Possibly a New Threat to Shipping – RedState.

Houthi gains are the blue area.

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Let's take a look at what all of this may and may not mean.

Finger-pointing has started

CNN has a decent roundup of reactions to events. It isn't just some purple-haired, nose-ringed harpy screeching "OrangeManBad," so you could be forgiven for doubting it was produced by that outlet. It is aptly titled: ‘"A f***-up of epic proportions’: Blame game begins after Houthis’ lightning advance down Red Sea coast."

Here are the high points:

What went wrong?

In simple terms, Yemen's reach exceeded its grasp by quite a margin. The Houthis have a single chain of command and a belief system that unifies them. They had professional IRGC advisers available to help unscrew the mess that was developing on Wednesday. The Yemeni government forces are fragmented. There is a Yemeni Army, but it is a partner in a coalition, and most of its partners are advised and paid by the UAE. 

  • Southern Transitional Council (STC): A political and military separatist organization aiming for an independent southern Yemen. 
  • Giants Brigades (Al-Amaliqa): A prominent UAE-trained and armed military force active on southern front lines. 
  • Security Belt Forces: Paramilitary units deployed across southern governorates like Aden.
  • National Resistance Forces: Led by Tareq Saleh, operating largely along the western coast and aligned within the broader anti-Houthi coalition.

As the UAE has largely extracted itself from this war, the quality and enthusiasm of these forces are anyone's guess.

Whatever cooperation existed between those components is likely over.

While the government forces running out of steam and collapsing was never outside the realm of possibilities probably the biggest mystery is why Saudi Arabia stood by and let its client state get curb-stomped, though that does seem to be the Middle Eastern way of war.

Strange things are happening in Yemen 

That BOTH Saudi Arabia and the US are standing by as the Houthis lock down the coast controlling the Red Sea's maritime traffic makes no sense 

Many possible explanations but none of them explain why it's geopolitically beneficial to do so

Saudi oil at risk

I've posted before on the massive shift of oil from the Persian Gulf to safer routes because of Iran's aggressiveness; see Tehran’s Hormuz Blockade Looks Like History’s Dumbest Trade Own-Goal – RedState. One of the key parts of this move is Saudi oil moving by pipeline to the Saudi Red Sea port of Yanbu.

That is now in jeopardy as the Houthis are in a better position to attack Saudi shipping than they were a few days ago. Friday, the Saudi pipeline was hit by a drone attack which heavily damaged a pumping station. For now, tankers are still filling up with Saudi oil from storage tanks, but it underscored the vulnerability of the pipeline and the entire strategy of avoiding the Strait of Hormuz.

I have looked at all the data, and it appears the Houthis have struck this pumping station on the Saudi East-West Pipeline. The pumping station at 23.95909, 40.05338 is still on fire—it's the only pumping station on fire. NASA FIRMS shows every other location on the pipeline conducting flaring at proper locations. The pipeline is likely no longer moving crude, as they have started flaring at Yanbu. Only two VLCCs were docked today. Luckily, only a few vessels were waiting to load. My tool will help ID vessels and fast id known location images

Yemen anti-Houthi coalition splits

The defeat on Thursday resulted in the UAE-sponsored STC blocking the retreat of Yemen government forces and leaving them trapped by the Houthis. This is a huge change in the regional alignment of forces. Whether this is the STC acting out of frustration or a sign that the government coalition is over is something to watch.

UPDATE: As President Leadership Council forces retreat from Mocha, former Southern Transitional Council formations are now blocking their entry into southern areas like Aden and Lahij. 

They're demanding full disarmament before allowing passage. 

In a further twist, STC forces are reportedly mobilizing to seize Aden from the PLC themselves, aiming to prevent the city from eventually falling to the advancing Houthis, deepening the fractures within Yemen's anti-Houthi coalition as the military collapse accelerates.

Houthis: free agents or proxies?

It is hard to tell if the Houthis are acting as free agents or if they are acting as Iranian proxies. The Houthis announced a blockade of Saudi Arabia in July even as Iran was calling for them to totally block Bab al-Mandeb; see New: Iran Now Calling on Houthis to Block Red Sea Gateway – RedState. Since then, their attacks on Red Sea shipping have been limited to Saudi-related vessels. According to reports, the Houthis called President Trump and asked him not to interfere in the conflict. It looks like they got the message he sent in July; see President Trump Puts Iran on Notice: Rein in the Houthis Now or Else – RedState

We had discussions. The Houthis called us. They don't want to fight with us. They let us know they don't want to fight with us. They don't want us to go after them. But they called and they talked to us and they don't want us to...they would much prefer not having us involved. They're letting most ships go through. There's one country they're not too happy with and we'll get that straightened out. 

If the Houthis refrain from attacking non-Saudi shipping, then this becomes a back-burner crisis that we can kick down the road a bit.

Is Iran getting cold feet?

The drone attack on the Saudi pipeline pumping station caused a couple of unexpected things to happen. First, Iran, via its Iraqi proxy force, immediately denied any involvement in the episode. This is very much unlike the Iran before Operation Epic Fury which scabbed credit for things it didn't do.

The IRGC-backed "Islamic Resistance in Iraq" officially denies recent accusations that they targeted vital Saudi facilities last Friday. They refer to the alleged attack as an "honor we do not claim," and criticize the Iraqi government for hastily believing these claims without solid evidence or investigation. They warn against falling for "Zionist-American plots" intended to drag Iraq into internal and external crises.

The Iraqi government showed an immediate reaction. It immediately closed the main border crossings with Iran.

Arab sources tell Al Arabiya that Iraq has fully closed the Shalameja, Sheeb, and Mandali border crossings with Iran.

It also fired a military commander responsible for border security.

Iraq has dismissed a military commander after investigations found that recent drone attacks targeting Saudi Arabia were launched from Iraqi territory, the prime minister’s office said.  

The commander, who oversaw operations in Maysan province in southern Iraq, was removed following the findings.

The fact that neither Iran nor its Iraqi proxy have claimed credit is a sign that someone may be tapping the brakes.

U.S. involvement on the horizon?

There are two parts to this.

First and foremost, if the Houthis limit their shipping attack to vessels carrying Saudi cargo, that makes this a Saudi problem. The Saudis were unable or unwilling to lift a finger to help the Yemen government so, in my view, there is no reason for us to do so.

The second part is that we are engaged in a crucial strategic conflict with Iran. If we back down from our stated victory conditions and especially if we allow Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz, then we have lost credibility worldwide. If Trump expands the war to include Yemen, which might have to be done eventually, before the midterms, he will be politically punished. Plus the spectacle of Saudi Arabia asking for the U.S. to fight a war for it on the anniversary of 9/11 was sort of obscene.

Bottom line

The Houthis controlling access to the Red Sea is not a good thing. In fact, it is a bad thing that we may have to deal with later. Right now, we can't afford to take our eye off the main event, the war with Iran, unless the Houthis start acting ignorant.

This is also a lesson for the Saudis. For too long, the Saudis have skated with the U.S. providing its security while it acted like a regional power. To paraphrase the words to the immortal Harry Callahan:

"It they want to play lumberjack, they have to learn to handle their end of the log."

This could end up being a null set, once the queasiness of the world markets settle down. If Suez traffic is uninterrupted and the Saudis care enough to keep their shipping safe, then its Houthi offensive isn't a world or American problem. That could change overnight, just like it did Wednesday.