Is the ‘Blue Wall’ Cracking? Shocking Poll Shows Rust Belt Shift in 2024

We've been talking a lot about the momentum shifting toward former President Donald Trump as the election draws near.

A likely part of it was just the polls properly adjusting, the RFK Jr endorsement, the JD Vance and Tim Walz debate, and, finally, people seeing more of Walz and Kamala Harris. The more they see of Harris, the more they don't want her.. That was true in 2020, and I think it's true now. Add in a knucklehead, and that doesn't help.

The other part is that when you compare them Trump is just the demonstrably more knowledgeable and accomplished candidate. People know it was better under him so when they get down to seriously thinking about it, that comes to the fore. They're seeing unlike Trump, she just isn't in the same league and she can't answer simple questions with talking points, a teleprompter, or help.

There are now even signs that blue states that should have been safe, like Virginia, might be in play. Virginia is now tight.

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New Polling May Cause Dem Freakout: Shocking Rust Belt Numbers, More Signs Blue States May Be in Play

Now, add in another poll that is pretty shocking.

I don't think a lot of the Quinnipiac poll. But I will sometimes reference it when it can provide information which may be illuminating. It's generally viewed as a "liberal" poll, and in 2020, erred a lot on the side of Democrats.

For context, Quinnipiac average error in 2020 was 7.3 points always in favor of democrats. pic.twitter.com/7tcDaYLVaX
— Steph (@Steph93065) September 18, 2024

So with that said, what is that poll now saying?

Quinnipiac has Trump up +3 in Michigan, 50 to 47 percent, and up +2 in Wisconsin, 48 to 46 percent.

📊 Rust Belt polling by Quinnipiac

MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump: 50% (+3)
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟪 Oliver: 1%
🟨 West: 1%

Last poll (9/16) - 🔵 Harris +5
——
WISCONSIN
🟥 Trump: 48% (+2)
🟦 Harris: 46%
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟪 Oliver: 1%

Last poll - 🔵 Harris +1
——
PENNSYLVANIA
🟦 Harris: 49% (+3)
🟥… pic.twitter.com/lQHhO2taPt
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 9, 2024

Now they have him down in Pennsylvania by 3, but as most noted, that seemed unlikely given the rest of the blue wall. In 2020, they overestimated Pennsylvania for Biden by a lot.

The poll has Trump up on what have consistently been the most important issues to people: immigration and the economy.

pic.twitter.com/f08dTk8jju
— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) October 9, 2024

While it's shocking that Quinnipiac has these numbers, it's not shocking in that it's consistent with other Rust Belt numbers we've been noting about Michigan and Wisconsin in the last few days.

Here's the RCP average in the battleground states now, including the Quinnipiac numbers.