Quinnipiac Poll Results Come in and Deliver Devastating News for Kamala Harris

There may be a big shift underway. Over the last couple of days, there has been some real movement in some of the polls back to former President Donald Trump. The reality of Kamala Harris's emptiness seems to be setting in, and it looks like her avoidance of questions may now be backfiring on her.

We saw the recent NYT/Siena College Poll and the Emerson College polls. Those were already showing some good numbers for Trump, with NYT showing him up by 5 points in Arizona, 4 points in Georgia, and 2 in North Carolina. Then Emerson has Trump up in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, tied in Nevada, with Harris ahead in NC and MI. If that holds, Trump wins.

Now there's the Quinnipiac poll, a poll that has a devastating result for Harris. It has Trump in the lead in the national vote.

🇺🇲 National poll by Quinnipiac

🟥 Trump: 48%
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟪 Oliver: 1%

Last poll (8/27) - 🔵 Harris +1
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• #19 (2.8/3.0) | 1,728 LV | 9/19-22
• Party ID: D32/R30 | MoE: ±2.4%https://t.co/hFirxxVyz8 pic.twitter.com/riTdCczwX8
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 24, 2024

It's moved two points in Trump's direction. In August, Harris was up 1 point. Now, Trump is up by 1, 48 to 47 among likely voters in the full-field race. If he's up by one in the popular vote, that spells good news for the Electoral College. And that's with a slightly greater percentage of Democrats than Republicans in the poll.

Now, in general, I don't like this poll. I feel that they've erred in the past, favoring Democrats, but I point it out because when even this poll seems to be going in this direction, the movement is hard to deny.

If you look at the cross tabs, it's even worse for Harris. Among independents, Trump is up 47 to 44. Even the enthusiasm has dropped for Harris since August among Democrats, going down 5 points from 75 to 70 percent. The reality is starting to set in with her. Meanwhile, the enthusiasm for Trump has gone up 3 points since August. The respondents even said he cared more about the needs of people like them 49 to 48 percent over Harris.

Here's her downfall. On the top issues, the economy and immigration, Trump tops Harris by 7 and 8 points, respectively, and most think Trump would do better handling a crisis, 51 to 47.

But there's at least one thing in the cross tabs that doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. It says that Trump is winning white voters by 4 percent, 50 to 46 percent, and Hispanics by 8 percent, 52 to 44 percent. If Trump were winning with those by that much, it would seem he'd be winning the top line by more than 1 percent. So that seems off, and it seems like it should be even worse for Harris. Plus, while I think Trump is doing well with Hispanics, I'm not sure I believe that number with only 50 percent then with the white vote.

The poll also gives what may end up being a warning: 74 percent of Democrats would be "very upset" if Harris lost.

For perspective, Quinnipiac had Biden up by ten at this same point (off the final result by 5.5 percent).

There has been a stretch of polls for the past few days have not been good for Kamala Harris. Here's another.

Quinnipiac is 2020 had Biden winning by 10+... https://t.co/TSfvRrr5sV
— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) September 24, 2024