My colleague Streiff reported on a pretty stunning early look coming out of Florida, in particular Miami-Dade County. Miami Dade has a history of being pretty strongly Democrat. Check out that article because that’s pretty amazing if that’s true — and if is, then Democrats are in big trouble.

Now we have some more data points. Cook Political’s Dave Wasserman not only concurred with that Miami-Dade information Streiff reported, he also had an early look into what the numbers are looking like in Virginia.

This Tweet re local turnout data is big news from Dave Wasserman of the @CookPolitical.
🚨🚨🚨 https://t.co/vEDCtZ8Ouf

— Jack Kalavritinos (@Jkal1985) November 8, 2022

“Noon turnout reports in VA Beach – a majority of Rep. Elaine Luria’s (D) Toss Up #VA02 – show most heavily GOP precincts up to 55-60% of ’21 votes cast, vs. 40-45% in most non-white precincts,” Wasserman said. He also said, “Total ballots cast skewing much more R than ’20 in many FL counties.”

Wasserman explained that while the numbers might tighten up over the day, these gaps were going to be hard to overcome.

In recent years, R voters have generally enjoyed their largest turnout advantage in the first 2-3 hours of EDay voting. So, it’s possible these gaps will narrow – and these are just two states.

But, these are just large differentials for Dems to overcome in the next few hours.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 8, 2022

The last polling that Cook dropped also looked like more things were moving the Republicans’ way in Florida and Texas.

Today, we are making three House rating changes:
FL-13: Likely R to Lean R
FL-27: Lean R to Likely R
TX-28: Lean D to Toss Up

See our full House ratings chart here: https://t.co/TZpFmVYFif

— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) November 7, 2022

FL-13: Likely R to Lean R
FL-27: Lean R to Likely R
TX-28: Lean D to Toss Up

TX-28 and FL-13 would be pick-ups if the Republicans can take them. TX-28 is the race between Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) and Cassy Garcia. The Democrats even had to detail Bill Clinton out to help Cuellar because it’s such a toss-up there.

Democrats have far more toss-ups that they have to defend than do the Republicans — 26 to 10.

Jon Ralston is telling the tale of the numbers in Nevada and those are looking great too.

So non-major party voters are turning out in greater numbers than Dems to vote in person today in both Las Vegas and Reno. It is still early and the relative vote totals are pretty small compared to the early vote.

But unless the Dems are REALLY mailing it in, I see red people.

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 8, 2022

We’ll find out soon, but it’s looking red, guys.