Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman debated with Dr. Mehmet Oz for the state’s open Senate seat on Tuesday. It was an unmitigated disaster for Fetterman. It was clear that Fetterman couldn’t communicate and had problems understanding what was going on. Meanwhile, Oz came across as knowledgeable and with plans for Pennsylvania.

I wrote about some of the voter reactions here and here, showing after the debate that independents and undecideds were now moving toward Oz.

Now, there’s a new poll that confirms that move, not just about the independents but of likely voters in general–and it’s bad news for Fetterman.

The InsiderAdvantage poll now has Oz up by three points over Fetterman, 47.5 percent to 44.8 percent, with 3.6 percent undecided; 65.9 percent of independents preferred Oz to 22.5 percent for Fetterman. So, it looks like Oz is sewing up the independent/undecided votes, and it’s likely many in that undecided category will break toward Oz. It’s also probably higher than that, given that polls tend to underestimate Republicans and oversample Democrats.

It likely has not fully factored in all the debate reaction yet, although they did have a question about it. This poll was taken on October 26 with 750 likely Pennsylvania voters, with a margin of error of 3.58 percent, and 83 percent of the people had seen at least some part of the debate.

The poll asked the people who had seen some part of the debate that regardless of who they supported for the seat, who did they think won the debate on Tuesday? 53.6 percent said Oz, 20 percent said Fetterman, with 25.9 percent were undecided. Again, the independents went 67.8 for Oz, and only 9.8 percent thought Fetterman had won.

As we reported, Oz had the perfect reply when the Fetterman team complained that the closed-captioning system failed during the debate. He offered Fetterman another debate. You know that he’s not going to take Oz up on that.

On top of all the rest in the poll, the likely voters were asked what they thought of Joe Biden. It did not go well for him and is another indication of what the voters are going to be thinking about when they vote. 6.2 percent had a “somewhat unfavorable” and 51.7 percent had an unfavorable view of Biden. Only 24.5 percent had a “favorable” opinion of Biden, and 17.5 had a “somewhat favorable” view of him.

RealClearPolitics estimates that GOP are underestimated by 4.2 percent. Their adjusted poll average has Oz up by 3.9, and they’re predicting that Pennsylvania is now a hold.

That may not even count all the effect of the debate yet. Once that is fully factored in, it may be all over but the shouting.